***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 31.0 32.1 32.4 2.5 88.6 82.4 28.5 29.5 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 30.4 31.2 32.4 2.2 84.2 77.8 28.4 29.2 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 30.4 31.3 32.1 2.2 84.6 78.6 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 23.9 24.7 30.4 2.1 84.4 79.1 21.4 22.4 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 31.3 32.3 30.5 2.2 85.3 79.6 28.9 29.9 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 29.9 31.1 28.3 2.4 88.7 83.6 27.5 28.4 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 30.2 31.1 32.3 2.3 85.7 79.3 28.1 29.0 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 19.0 20.4 29.1 2.8 91.9 85.6 16.9 17.7 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 30.6 31.7 31.0 2.5 87.8 81.6 28.3 29.2 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 30.4 31.8 29.6 2.6 89.7 83.1 28.1 29.0 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 30.8 32.0 30.1 2.4 87.4 81.5 28.4 29.4 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 30.1 31.7 30.4 2.9 91.9 86.2 27.7 28.7 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 31.3 32.7 29.9 2.6 90.2 84.9 28.8 29.8 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 30.2 31.2 30.2 2.3 85.9 79.3 28.0 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 31.4 32.4 31.6 2.4 87.7 82.5 29.2 30.1 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 31.9 33.0 30.1 2.3 86.6 81.4 29.4 30.4 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 29.7 30.2 31.5 1.8 79.2 73.0 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 29.3 30.5 28.8 2.6 89.7 82.7 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 30.1 31.0 32.4 2.3 85.2 78.7 27.9 28.8 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 25.4 26.9 26.7 2.5 90.6 83.8 23.1 24.0 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 30.6 31.7 31.8 2.3 86.4 80.4 28.3 29.3 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 30.2 30.7 31.3 1.7 78.6 72.5 28.1 29.1 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 30.2 31.2 32.2 2.6 87.9 81.2 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 29.9 31.0 30.3 2.4 87.0 80.4 27.7 28.6 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 31.0 32.1 30.9 2.5 88.3 82.3 28.6 29.5 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 30.9 32.5 30.1 2.8 92.3 86.8 28.4 29.4 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 30.5 31.6 31.6 2.6 89.5 83.2 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 31.4 32.1 30.9 2.1 84.5 79.4 29.1 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 24.9 26.3 27.8 2.6 90.2 83.0 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 30.3 31.3 32.5 2.4 85.7 79.4 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------