***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 2.9 6.4 6.6 55.0 46.7 30.3 3.4 7.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.4 7.5 7.1 63.4 50.1 35.1 3.5 7.3 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 2.5 4.6 5.4 47.9 42.2 29.1 2.8 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 2.6 4.2 5.7 41.8 40.3 28.3 2.8 6.4 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 2.4 3.9 5.6 40.8 39.3 28.5 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 2.1 4.7 6.6 46.9 43.2 29.2 2.9 6.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.3 6.1 7.7 70.3 54.3 36.9 2.3 5.1 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 4.2 7.5 6.9 44.5 41.8 29.8 4.8 10.5 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 1.9 3.6 5.1 37.3 37.1 25.7 2.9 6.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 2.6 4.6 6.8 41.1 39.9 28.8 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 2.6 5.3 5.4 48.1 43.0 29.1 3.2 7.2 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 2.1 4.7 5.5 47.5 43.0 27.7 2.7 6.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 1.9 4.7 6.7 49.3 43.6 30.2 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 3.2 5.7 7.2 45.7 43.1 32.6 3.2 7.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 2.0 3.5 5.5 41.0 41.4 28.5 2.2 5.3 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 2.3 4.9 5.9 48.4 42.8 28.7 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.0 7.0 6.7 63.8 51.6 37.3 2.8 6.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 3.0 5.4 7.3 39.7 39.2 28.5 3.9 9.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.9 5.8 6.4 56.1 46.4 32.2 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.4 6.6 9.1 48.6 42.3 33.2 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 2.9 5.0 5.1 41.1 40.5 28.2 3.4 7.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 2.4 5.4 5.6 52.3 46.8 33.8 2.9 6.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 2.3 4.8 5.7 48.7 44.3 30.0 2.6 6.4 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 3.3 5.5 6.2 40.8 39.9 29.3 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.4 3.9 6.1 43.5 41.4 30.3 2.4 6.0 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.9 5.4 6.6 50.6 44.9 31.9 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.7 5.7 7.4 55.5 47.0 31.9 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 2.6 4.8 5.8 42.9 41.4 28.4 3.2 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 5.9 10.5 8.4 46.6 42.9 31.1 6.9 13.9 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.7 6.1 7.1 62.9 50.0 33.5 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------