***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 2.8 9.2 3.6 69.2 53.1 23.6 4.3 8.3 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 3.2 13.1 5.6 87.1 60.5 28.0 4.4 9.0 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 2.4 8.0 4.1 71.3 54.5 26.4 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 4.2 17.2 5.8 85.7 61.5 27.4 6.1 11.8 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 2.4 8.5 5.5 77.0 59.3 28.0 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 2.5 11.3 8.5 83.0 60.8 31.1 3.1 7.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 2.8 9.8 5.3 83.5 58.7 28.5 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 4.9 20.3 8.7 96.8 64.8 29.7 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 2.8 8.8 5.0 63.7 54.0 25.4 4.2 7.8 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 4.0 16.1 8.3 88.4 62.5 29.3 5.8 10.8 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 3.1 14.6 5.6 98.6 65.3 28.0 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 3.4 14.0 5.8 94.8 64.2 26.9 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 2.4 10.8 6.6 87.8 62.3 29.4 3.1 6.7 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 3.5 13.4 8.1 86.0 62.0 30.8 3.7 8.4 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 3.3 13.7 5.3 94.1 63.5 27.9 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 2.6 9.8 5.7 87.4 62.1 28.2 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 3.0 14.7 5.8 95.9 62.9 27.4 4.2 9.0 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 4.4 14.8 10.4 88.4 63.5 31.1 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 2.7 14.7 5.6 92.4 62.4 27.8 3.8 8.9 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 3.8 15.8 12.9 108.0 68.2 35.2 4.3 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 2.2 7.7 3.8 61.5 51.9 22.9 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 2.9 12.1 6.3 97.5 63.8 26.6 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 2.6 11.6 5.8 99.6 65.3 28.9 3.6 7.1 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 4.7 16.0 7.5 77.7 59.4 29.3 6.1 11.7 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 3.3 10.8 4.9 77.9 57.1 29.0 4.1 8.5 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 2.7 9.9 4.7 86.3 60.0 29.5 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 3.1 9.5 4.3 69.7 53.0 26.6 4.0 8.4 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 2.9 11.8 5.7 86.4 61.5 25.7 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 5.8 20.1 11.6 98.6 66.0 32.2 7.0 12.6 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 2.0 7.4 4.9 79.3 57.6 27.7 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------