***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 2.2 13.7 6.1 139.8 75.3 35.3 2.6 5.5 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 1.8 7.6 5.1 88.3 62.0 35.9 2.2 4.8 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 2.3 15.8 6.2 132.2 73.6 37.1 2.7 6.4 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 2.1 10.7 6.0 115.4 69.6 37.3 2.5 5.3 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 1.8 8.7 5.9 116.6 69.8 38.6 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 3.3 15.3 9.8 114.7 70.4 37.3 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 1.9 8.0 5.0 92.7 62.8 35.4 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.4 14.2 7.5 107.2 67.4 43.0 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 2.3 10.9 5.8 111.1 68.8 38.7 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.4 12.0 7.1 99.9 65.4 41.4 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.5 9.3 5.2 117.9 70.2 38.8 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 2.0 8.5 5.2 115.7 69.3 37.8 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 2.0 9.5 5.7 116.8 70.1 36.5 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.3 12.0 7.2 78.4 59.6 38.7 4.8 8.9 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.9 9.3 5.6 105.5 67.5 35.4 2.2 4.8 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 1.6 8.1 5.1 113.3 68.9 35.9 1.8 4.0 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 1.9 5.6 4.6 77.5 58.4 34.7 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 3.4 8.1 7.9 82.0 59.8 40.9 3.7 6.3 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 2.5 9.2 5.3 89.4 62.8 35.4 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.8 11.8 9.8 99.1 64.9 45.6 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 2.6 15.4 5.7 134.9 74.2 34.5 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 2.2 7.2 4.9 73.2 58.1 34.3 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 2.1 9.0 5.7 88.2 63.0 35.4 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 3.8 11.1 6.9 87.2 61.7 38.8 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 2.5 13.0 6.6 127.7 72.5 36.7 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 2.2 12.0 5.2 125.3 72.0 35.5 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 2.5 15.2 6.7 130.4 73.2 36.7 3.0 6.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 2.1 9.5 5.8 109.9 68.3 35.8 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 4.6 11.3 8.2 79.9 58.7 40.4 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 1.9 10.5 5.5 107.5 67.4 36.7 2.2 5.3 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------