***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 1.9 5.6 3.5 69.2 52.5 31.2 2.1 5.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 2.9 8.6 5.5 75.8 58.5 36.6 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.2 8.1 4.8 74.7 56.1 34.6 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 1.9 5.6 4.4 56.3 51.5 29.5 2.1 5.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 1.2 4.7 5.5 72.9 57.7 32.0 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 1.5 4.2 6.5 56.9 53.5 31.9 1.5 3.6 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.8 9.9 5.3 79.2 58.8 37.5 2.8 6.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 2.7 11.1 8.4 85.6 62.4 36.9 3.0 6.7 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 1.8 8.0 6.0 82.3 60.5 33.9 1.9 5.0 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 2.0 7.4 8.1 82.3 61.0 36.4 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 1.3 5.0 5.1 68.5 55.8 31.0 1.6 3.8 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 1.5 4.5 5.4 73.3 57.7 32.5 1.9 3.5 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 1.3 4.1 4.9 62.2 54.6 31.8 1.5 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.4 11.3 8.3 75.2 58.1 39.6 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 1.3 3.1 2.7 39.3 42.7 24.4 1.7 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 1.3 4.1 4.1 55.7 52.3 29.6 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 2.7 7.9 5.5 72.5 57.7 36.2 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 2.9 9.3 9.1 75.2 58.7 39.2 2.7 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.3 7.3 5.3 71.1 57.0 35.6 2.4 5.6 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 2.2 8.7 11.1 86.6 62.9 42.0 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 1.7 6.0 4.5 73.7 56.0 31.2 1.9 4.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.0 9.2 5.9 70.7 58.1 36.7 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.8 7.6 5.3 67.0 55.2 35.4 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 3.1 8.7 7.3 71.8 56.5 37.7 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 1.4 3.7 4.1 54.7 48.8 31.3 1.8 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 1.3 4.3 4.4 80.3 60.4 32.8 1.5 3.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 3.1 7.1 3.9 58.6 49.4 31.5 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 1.3 3.5 3.8 48.7 49.2 27.3 1.6 3.6 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 3.1 10.0 9.9 78.2 60.1 40.6 3.1 6.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.5 7.2 5.1 78.3 58.3 36.3 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------