***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 17.5 32.2 19.8 74.5 48.5 36.1 20.1 33.7 50.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 22.9 38.3 23.3 76.0 48.8 39.6 26.1 39.3 55.3 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 22.5 36.6 20.5 72.9 47.4 37.6 25.7 38.8 54.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 22.9 34.5 21.9 65.6 44.5 35.0 24.8 39.7 58.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 14.7 22.6 22.5 67.0 44.2 35.9 16.3 26.4 39.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 21.2 34.0 31.3 71.0 47.3 35.9 23.2 36.1 52.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 24.0 37.7 23.3 79.3 50.7 41.4 25.4 37.2 50.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 36.0 53.8 31.4 76.1 47.8 37.5 39.6 56.1 75.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 22.7 31.6 21.9 64.4 41.8 34.5 25.4 37.7 52.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 28.2 39.9 30.2 70.5 44.6 36.3 31.5 44.1 58.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 20.9 34.7 21.3 73.6 48.4 37.7 24.4 35.9 49.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 17.3 29.4 21.8 73.6 47.6 35.8 19.8 31.1 45.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 15.6 27.7 23.9 70.6 46.2 34.6 19.4 30.3 43.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 30.9 44.7 30.8 67.9 44.0 35.1 34.9 50.2 68.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 13.7 23.2 19.0 61.3 43.9 33.6 15.4 28.6 46.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 15.7 25.4 20.7 68.0 45.2 34.1 18.3 28.5 41.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 28.0 39.9 22.7 75.1 49.0 39.5 29.9 40.6 52.9 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 32.6 43.3 34.8 66.7 41.1 33.0 37.5 50.2 64.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 18.1 33.2 22.6 73.1 48.1 38.1 20.4 35.4 55.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 30.4 43.6 42.9 79.9 47.8 37.2 33.2 45.2 58.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 24.0 34.6 19.2 66.1 43.4 34.7 27.1 39.6 54.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 26.7 38.7 22.7 70.3 47.7 37.2 29.3 40.3 52.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 17.5 29.6 22.6 70.3 47.5 36.6 18.4 31.8 49.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 33.1 43.5 28.0 65.0 41.4 33.5 37.5 50.3 64.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 19.3 29.2 21.8 65.8 42.8 34.3 22.3 34.6 49.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 14.2 25.4 20.9 74.1 48.8 36.8 15.5 26.3 40.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 24.2 37.3 22.4 71.0 45.5 35.3 27.1 41.4 58.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 17.1 26.3 21.0 63.5 44.5 34.0 18.5 30.5 45.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 44.2 57.4 38.0 71.9 44.1 34.6 48.4 62.5 77.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 16.0 29.7 22.7 77.7 50.0 39.8 18.0 29.7 44.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------