***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.6 19.0 0.0 50.0 50.1 14.8 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.6 18.7 -0.1 47.6 47.9 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.1 17.7 19.2 -0.1 47.6 48.1 17.0 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.8 14.3 17.1 0.5 63.9 61.5 12.5 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.4 17.5 0.2 54.3 53.1 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.7 14.0 15.0 0.4 63.4 61.7 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.1 18.8 -0.1 48.7 48.9 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 9.1 9.0 14.7 0.1 53.4 53.0 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.4 17.5 -0.1 46.2 46.8 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 15.6 15.4 15.6 0.0 49.2 49.3 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.5 14.8 17.0 -0.3 41.6 42.6 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 13.6 13.6 16.0 0.2 54.6 54.2 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 13.6 13.9 15.7 -0.5 35.4 37.5 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.0 16.9 -0.2 45.0 46.2 15.5 16.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 17.3 16.9 18.9 -0.1 47.5 48.0 16.3 17.0 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.5 16.5 -0.2 44.2 45.0 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.8 16.6 18.6 0.1 51.4 50.9 15.9 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.0 14.9 0.1 53.8 53.4 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.7 18.8 -0.1 46.3 46.9 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.2 10.4 13.3 0.4 61.4 60.0 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.3 18.5 -0.1 47.7 48.0 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.6 18.9 0.1 51.7 51.2 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.2 18.9 -0.1 46.9 47.4 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.2 15.9 17.1 -0.1 48.1 48.6 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.4 18.2 0.0 50.3 50.4 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 14.8 14.6 14.8 0.0 50.0 50.4 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.4 18.6 0.1 52.4 52.2 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 14.8 14.9 17.6 0.2 56.5 55.5 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.3 14.2 0.2 55.0 54.6 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.8 19.0 -0.2 46.2 46.8 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------