***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 15.4 16.5 19.5 0.3 55.6 54.8 15.5 16.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.0 19.1 0.0 50.0 51.0 15.0 16.0 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.6 18.5 19.8 0.3 55.7 54.7 17.3 18.2 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 14.6 14.7 17.6 1.0 70.1 64.5 12.7 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.4 17.7 0.6 62.5 59.6 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 14.4 14.6 15.6 1.1 75.2 67.8 12.9 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.3 19.3 0.1 52.4 52.6 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.1 15.3 0.7 65.6 61.8 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.4 17.8 0.6 62.4 59.3 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 16.6 16.5 16.2 0.7 65.6 61.6 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 14.6 15.9 17.3 0.4 59.8 57.4 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.3 16.5 0.7 64.9 61.3 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 13.8 15.0 15.8 0.3 57.8 56.0 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.9 17.4 0.5 60.2 58.3 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.7 19.4 0.8 66.9 61.8 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.9 16.7 0.6 62.3 59.1 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.6 18.8 0.0 50.3 51.3 15.7 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 15.1 15.1 15.4 0.8 68.3 63.7 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.0 19.2 0.0 49.8 50.7 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 11.2 11.2 13.4 0.8 69.6 64.7 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 16.0 16.1 18.9 0.5 59.3 57.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.6 19.0 0.1 51.9 52.4 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.7 19.3 0.1 52.3 52.4 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.7 17.5 0.6 63.1 60.1 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.3 18.5 0.4 57.1 56.4 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 15.6 15.7 15.6 0.9 70.2 64.2 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 15.0 16.6 18.9 0.3 56.3 55.5 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.6 15.8 18.2 1.1 72.4 65.6 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 14.2 14.1 14.7 0.7 66.6 62.7 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 15.4 16.4 19.4 0.1 51.0 51.6 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------