***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 14.8 15.4 18.5 -0.5 41.1 43.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 14.5 14.9 18.2 -0.6 37.9 40.8 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 17.1 17.7 18.9 -0.4 42.2 43.9 17.3 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.2 16.7 0.3 56.5 55.0 12.9 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.1 16.3 -0.2 45.5 46.9 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.6 14.9 0.4 59.2 57.1 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 15.0 15.5 18.5 -0.4 41.2 43.1 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.2 14.5 0.0 50.4 50.3 8.5 9.2 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.2 16.2 -0.3 43.7 45.5 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.4 15.0 0.0 49.3 49.5 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.8 16.1 -0.2 46.7 47.7 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.1 15.3 -0.1 48.3 48.7 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.2 14.3 -0.1 47.4 48.3 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 15.2 15.7 16.2 -0.3 43.8 45.4 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.9 18.4 0.5 60.5 57.5 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.9 15.4 0.0 49.8 49.9 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.5 15.9 18.0 -0.5 39.8 42.5 15.6 16.2 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.6 14.1 0.1 51.3 50.8 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 15.0 15.3 18.3 -0.6 38.0 40.8 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.6 11.9 0.1 52.0 51.3 8.9 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 14.5 14.9 17.6 -0.4 41.6 43.7 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 14.4 14.8 18.0 -0.4 41.6 43.6 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.4 14.7 18.3 -0.5 40.0 42.2 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 14.9 15.6 16.1 -0.2 46.5 47.5 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.1 17.1 -0.3 43.1 45.2 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.6 14.4 0.1 51.8 51.8 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.2 17.7 -0.4 42.2 44.4 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.7 17.3 0.5 60.9 57.9 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.3 13.6 0.1 51.6 50.8 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 15.0 15.4 18.5 -0.6 39.2 41.7 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------