***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 29.5 30.2 30.1 0.9 64.2 62.6 27.7 29.1 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 29.6 29.7 29.8 0.4 56.1 55.3 27.8 29.2 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 29.3 29.8 30.2 0.8 60.5 59.3 27.5 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 24.1 24.6 27.9 1.8 75.9 72.9 20.9 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 31.0 31.0 28.9 1.3 67.8 65.7 27.9 29.4 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 29.7 30.0 26.8 1.6 73.2 71.1 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 29.4 30.1 30.1 0.9 64.1 62.0 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 18.9 19.0 26.9 1.5 69.8 67.8 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 30.5 30.7 29.8 1.4 69.6 67.2 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 30.4 30.7 27.8 1.7 72.4 69.8 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 29.4 30.2 29.2 1.0 64.2 62.7 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 29.7 29.6 28.2 1.2 66.4 64.8 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 29.6 30.1 28.8 0.7 60.2 59.3 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 30.3 30.6 29.3 1.7 73.3 70.2 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 31.4 31.6 31.0 1.5 69.9 68.0 28.7 30.0 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 30.4 31.3 28.9 1.1 64.8 63.4 28.4 29.9 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 29.1 29.6 29.7 0.7 61.6 59.9 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 29.5 30.0 27.0 1.9 75.7 72.6 26.3 27.7 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.1 29.9 0.4 55.9 55.3 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 25.5 26.1 25.2 2.0 77.7 74.8 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 30.5 30.5 30.3 1.2 67.4 65.3 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 30.5 30.3 29.9 1.1 66.6 64.2 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 29.0 29.4 30.2 0.7 60.1 59.0 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 30.0 30.3 29.3 1.7 72.5 69.6 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 29.7 30.5 29.0 0.9 63.8 62.3 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 30.3 30.2 28.1 1.2 66.2 64.8 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 30.2 30.1 29.6 1.0 65.6 63.8 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 31.6 32.1 29.5 1.9 76.3 73.6 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 24.9 25.5 26.3 1.9 76.2 73.0 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 29.3 29.5 29.9 0.5 57.3 56.5 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------