***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 30.0 30.1 30.5 0.6 57.2 56.1 28.4 29.6 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.0 30.0 -0.2 48.1 48.9 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.5 30.7 0.4 54.8 54.2 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 24.1 24.5 29.4 2.1 76.4 71.7 21.3 22.5 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 30.3 31.0 29.6 1.2 65.1 62.5 28.6 29.9 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 30.2 30.6 27.7 2.1 76.9 72.2 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.2 30.4 0.3 54.6 54.2 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 18.2 18.9 27.8 1.3 66.3 63.8 16.8 17.9 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 29.7 30.3 30.0 1.2 64.1 61.8 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 29.4 30.2 28.5 1.5 67.4 64.7 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 29.8 30.3 29.8 1.1 63.1 61.0 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 29.0 29.7 29.3 1.3 65.2 63.0 27.5 28.6 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 30.3 30.8 29.2 1.0 63.0 61.1 28.6 29.8 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 29.3 29.3 28.8 0.5 56.3 55.5 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 31.6 31.9 31.8 2.1 75.5 71.5 29.2 30.3 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 30.9 31.8 29.5 1.3 66.7 64.0 29.2 30.5 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.4 29.7 -0.1 48.9 49.8 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 28.3 29.1 27.5 1.4 66.4 64.1 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.6 30.1 -0.2 47.9 48.7 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 25.3 25.5 25.5 1.5 69.3 66.4 23.0 24.1 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 29.8 30.1 30.5 0.9 60.4 58.8 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.0 29.8 0.1 51.1 51.5 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.0 30.4 0.1 51.2 51.3 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 29.0 29.3 29.2 0.9 60.7 59.2 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 30.1 30.3 29.3 0.7 59.5 58.1 28.5 29.6 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 30.8 31.0 29.3 1.6 70.3 67.0 28.3 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.7 29.8 0.7 58.5 57.3 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 31.6 32.2 30.6 2.4 78.9 74.2 29.1 30.2 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 23.9 24.6 26.5 1.2 64.9 63.0 22.4 23.6 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.4 29.1 30.3 0.1 50.8 51.1 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------