***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 30.4 29.5 29.2 -0.3 45.9 47.6 28.4 29.8 31.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 27.8 28.6 28.8 -0.8 40.4 43.2 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.9 28.9 29.4 -0.4 45.5 47.2 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 23.2 23.5 28.1 0.8 60.0 58.3 21.0 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.7 30.2 27.9 0.0 50.1 51.0 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 29.2 29.2 25.7 0.5 57.4 56.7 27.1 28.6 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.5 29.0 -0.4 44.3 46.2 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.4 17.9 26.4 0.1 51.2 51.9 16.4 17.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.4 28.0 0.0 50.3 51.2 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.7 29.5 26.9 0.2 53.0 53.2 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 30.2 29.6 27.8 -0.1 48.9 50.2 28.2 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.9 27.8 0.0 49.5 50.8 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 30.7 30.0 26.8 -0.1 49.0 50.6 28.6 30.0 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 29.5 28.7 27.1 -0.4 45.2 47.0 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 31.4 31.0 29.5 1.0 62.7 60.3 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 31.3 30.9 27.6 0.2 52.2 52.8 29.3 30.7 32.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 27.1 28.0 28.5 -0.6 41.8 44.3 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.7 28.4 26.1 0.2 52.5 52.9 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.1 28.9 -0.8 40.0 42.9 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.4 23.6 0.1 51.8 52.3 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 30.0 29.2 28.7 -0.2 47.4 48.9 28.0 29.4 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.6 28.5 28.6 -0.6 43.0 45.3 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 29.4 28.3 29.1 -0.7 42.0 44.3 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 29.2 28.6 27.4 -0.1 49.0 50.1 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 30.2 29.4 27.6 -0.1 48.1 49.3 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 30.2 29.9 27.8 0.2 53.0 53.8 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 29.7 28.9 28.3 -0.2 47.0 48.4 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 31.7 31.2 28.7 1.0 63.3 60.8 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.7 24.9 0.0 50.3 51.2 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 29.7 28.5 29.0 -0.6 42.2 44.6 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------