***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 29.7 29.8 29.9 0.3 55.0 54.4 28.5 29.5 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.0 29.5 -0.2 45.7 46.3 28.4 29.2 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 29.4 29.3 30.1 0.2 53.1 52.6 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 23.7 24.0 28.6 1.4 75.1 72.2 21.4 22.4 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 30.1 30.6 28.7 0.7 61.9 60.5 28.9 29.9 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 29.6 29.8 26.6 1.2 72.7 70.2 27.5 28.4 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 29.2 29.1 29.8 0.2 53.6 53.4 28.1 29.0 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 17.9 18.4 27.0 0.8 63.8 62.1 16.9 17.7 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 29.5 29.9 29.1 0.7 62.3 60.8 28.3 29.2 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 46 54 100 29.9 29.9 27.7 0.9 66.4 64.4 28.1 29.0 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 29.7 29.9 28.8 0.5 58.9 57.7 28.4 29.4 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 28.9 29.2 28.4 0.6 60.7 59.4 27.7 28.7 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 30.0 30.2 28.0 0.4 57.2 56.3 28.8 29.8 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 29.1 29.3 28.2 0.4 57.8 56.8 28.0 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 31.1 31.4 30.7 1.5 74.4 71.8 29.2 30.1 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 30.7 31.2 28.5 0.7 62.5 60.9 29.4 30.4 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.9 28.5 29.3 -0.1 48.7 49.3 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 28.9 28.9 26.8 1.0 67.6 65.5 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.6 29.6 -0.3 45.2 45.8 27.9 28.8 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 25.0 25.1 24.7 1.0 69.0 66.7 23.1 24.0 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 29.5 29.8 29.7 0.5 58.5 57.4 28.3 29.3 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.2 29.4 0.1 52.1 52.0 28.1 29.1 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 29.1 28.8 29.8 0.0 49.3 49.3 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 28.8 29.2 28.5 0.7 61.9 60.4 27.7 28.6 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 29.8 29.9 28.5 0.4 57.3 56.5 28.6 29.5 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 29.6 30.3 28.4 0.8 65.3 63.3 28.4 29.4 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 29.3 29.4 29.2 0.4 56.8 56.1 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 31.2 31.6 29.6 1.7 77.9 74.9 29.1 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 23.7 24.4 25.8 0.9 65.8 63.8 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.4 29.0 29.7 -0.1 48.3 48.6 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------