***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.3 4.4 5.9 34.8 38.6 30.9 3.4 7.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 2.9 3.6 4.3 28.3 34.6 26.0 3.5 7.3 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 2.5 3.4 5.0 30.0 36.2 27.6 2.8 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 2.2 1.8 3.3 17.8 26.2 22.3 2.8 6.4 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 2.2 2.1 3.4 20.4 28.3 22.8 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 1.9 1.6 3.6 20.0 24.1 21.0 2.9 6.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.3 3.0 4.9 31.4 37.4 29.3 2.3 5.1 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 3.6 3.7 4.8 22.7 28.5 23.6 4.8 10.5 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 2.5 2.7 4.6 25.6 32.6 26.0 2.9 6.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 2.5 2.5 5.0 22.4 29.2 24.4 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 2.2 2.3 3.1 17.4 26.8 21.3 3.2 7.2 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 1.8 1.8 3.3 21.1 27.8 21.6 2.7 6.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 1.6 1.7 2.5 17.7 25.3 20.2 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 3.1 3.2 5.4 26.8 32.7 26.0 3.2 7.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 1.2 0.8 1.5 8.2 20.5 16.1 2.2 5.3 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 2.1 2.1 2.9 19.3 26.3 21.2 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 2.7 4.6 5.8 39.2 41.9 30.2 2.8 6.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 3.5 3.4 6.4 28.0 31.5 26.4 3.9 9.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 2.5 3.2 4.4 27.3 34.0 25.7 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 3.4 3.3 5.6 24.7 27.2 23.1 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 3.1 3.9 5.0 29.4 35.5 28.3 3.4 7.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 2.4 3.7 5.1 33.0 38.1 28.1 2.9 6.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.4 3.2 5.1 30.3 36.1 27.5 2.6 6.4 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 3.6 4.4 5.7 29.0 34.6 27.6 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.6 2.7 5.0 29.2 34.7 28.5 2.4 6.0 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 1.8 1.5 1.4 11.3 18.4 14.4 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.0 3.6 5.7 33.2 37.6 30.8 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 2.2 1.9 2.9 15.0 24.8 20.7 3.2 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 5.5 6.1 6.0 28.0 30.6 25.6 6.9 13.9 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 2.5 2.8 4.1 25.7 33.7 26.4 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------