***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.4 9.5 7.1 66.8 54.3 39.5 4.3 8.3 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.3 13.1 7.8 84.4 60.7 46.8 4.4 9.0 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.0 8.7 76.9 57.9 46.7 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.3 11.2 6.0 55.5 48.2 37.4 6.1 11.8 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.8 6.8 6.5 62.0 51.7 38.9 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.6 7.2 7.9 61.8 49.5 38.6 3.1 7.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.2 11.5 8.1 90.8 63.3 48.3 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.1 13.6 7.6 64.5 52.6 40.1 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.0 7.8 6.7 58.3 49.8 37.2 4.2 7.8 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.2 12.5 8.1 67.3 54.4 41.5 5.8 10.8 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.7 10.0 7.2 67.9 53.1 38.0 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.9 9.2 6.5 63.8 51.7 39.1 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.0 6.2 60.4 51.2 40.3 3.1 6.7 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.6 10.6 76.8 58.0 45.2 3.7 8.4 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.0 8.5 5.1 55.1 49.4 40.3 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.4 6.9 6.4 62.5 51.2 37.0 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.0 15.9 9.2 99.9 65.3 50.4 4.2 9.0 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 10.8 9.4 66.6 52.5 41.3 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.7 14.3 8.5 87.0 61.6 47.9 3.8 8.9 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.0 11.1 11.4 80.7 57.2 46.6 4.3 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.6 7.6 7.0 61.4 51.6 37.7 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.2 13.5 10.1 104.0 67.1 51.5 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.2 10.4 9.6 87.5 61.8 48.9 3.6 7.1 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.8 13.5 9.5 70.9 54.3 41.6 6.1 11.7 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.9 10.9 9.3 76.5 57.4 44.1 4.1 8.5 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.5 6.5 6.3 60.6 48.8 42.1 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.4 8.5 71.5 55.6 42.6 4.0 8.4 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.6 7.9 5.4 55.6 49.4 38.8 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.5 14.4 11.1 72.5 54.4 44.4 7.0 12.6 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.9 7.8 81.2 59.8 46.8 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------