***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 2.4 10.2 8.2 102.9 67.0 42.9 2.6 5.5 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 1.9 11.1 8.8 127.1 72.7 43.1 2.2 4.8 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.9 14.1 9.8 117.8 70.4 45.7 2.7 6.4 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 2.5 8.2 7.1 87.2 62.1 40.2 2.5 5.3 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.0 6.6 6.5 86.9 61.8 40.0 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.7 15.4 10.8 117.8 70.5 46.2 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.1 11.0 8.9 123.6 72.0 41.8 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 4.2 11.5 7.2 86.9 60.4 40.0 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.6 8.6 7.3 88.2 62.0 40.8 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.7 10.1 7.8 83.0 59.9 39.9 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.6 7.3 5.6 89.2 61.8 38.7 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 1.9 6.9 6.1 93.5 62.8 39.0 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.3 9.2 8.0 111.9 69.1 43.3 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.2 17.9 14.0 125.9 72.4 48.6 4.8 8.9 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.0 9.4 6.8 106.9 67.8 38.5 2.2 4.8 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 1.7 6.5 6.4 91.8 62.9 38.7 1.8 4.0 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 2.0 8.3 8.9 120.4 71.2 40.8 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.7 8.1 10.1 82.1 59.4 42.4 3.7 6.3 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.8 13.1 9.5 132.7 73.9 44.8 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.1 10.3 10.5 88.6 60.8 45.9 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.4 11.1 7.4 95.4 64.4 42.1 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 2.1 11.5 9.9 123.6 71.8 42.0 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.6 13.5 10.6 135.5 74.6 45.3 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.2 11.9 10.6 97.2 64.1 43.8 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.2 10.3 7.9 96.4 65.0 42.9 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.6 10.9 6.4 112.1 69.1 39.3 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 2.9 12.1 8.7 102.6 66.8 43.0 3.0 6.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.3 8.3 7.1 96.6 64.5 38.5 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.9 11.8 11.3 86.0 60.2 44.9 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.2 13.4 9.6 130.8 73.6 44.9 2.2 5.3 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------