***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.6 10.0 9.8 105.7 67.7 46.5 2.1 5.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.6 11.6 9.2 102.9 67.2 49.5 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.9 10.6 9.1 94.6 64.5 48.0 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.4 9.2 8.4 87.7 63.3 43.1 2.1 5.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.7 5.9 8.4 91.2 64.2 44.9 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.8 5.9 9.2 84.7 62.0 42.0 1.5 3.6 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.3 14.5 9.8 107.5 68.5 51.2 2.8 6.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 3.3 9.8 9.0 80.1 59.1 43.8 3.0 6.7 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.5 9.2 9.2 91.0 63.9 46.3 1.9 5.0 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.5 7.9 10.6 89.4 62.6 46.0 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 1.8 6.4 7.4 85.4 62.0 43.1 1.6 3.8 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 1.9 4.5 6.9 75.2 58.3 41.1 1.9 3.5 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 1.5 5.2 8.0 80.6 60.7 40.4 1.5 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.8 14.3 12.0 100.1 65.5 49.3 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 1.8 8.5 6.9 92.2 65.1 42.5 1.7 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 1.6 5.6 7.4 79.9 60.4 40.1 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.3 11.7 10.1 111.1 69.3 48.9 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.3 11.4 13.1 95.0 63.8 49.1 2.7 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.0 10.7 9.2 102.6 66.9 49.2 2.4 5.6 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.6 7.5 12.0 84.3 59.3 47.3 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.2 8.3 8.9 90.5 63.7 44.8 1.9 4.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.5 14.8 10.7 117.9 70.7 49.8 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.3 11.0 9.1 101.4 66.4 47.8 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.7 11.5 11.4 96.1 64.5 49.3 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.0 7.7 10.9 109.9 69.3 47.6 1.8 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 1.3 3.7 5.5 68.0 55.9 38.9 1.5 3.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.0 13.9 11.0 111.8 69.5 48.1 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 1.6 5.8 7.6 84.4 62.5 41.4 1.6 3.6 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.6 10.5 12.9 89.8 61.6 47.9 3.1 6.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.8 9.5 104.7 67.7 50.7 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------