***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 41.0 31.3 31.0 69.3 47.3 42.2 20.1 33.7 50.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 46.5 39.0 30.1 74.5 49.6 44.0 26.1 39.3 55.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 45.3 37.2 32.6 70.8 48.2 43.2 25.7 38.8 54.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 24.6 28.6 24.8 52.4 37.4 34.2 24.8 39.7 58.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 15.4 20.4 24.8 56.6 40.1 36.1 16.3 26.4 39.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 20.2 26.2 31.4 61.9 37.3 33.8 23.2 36.1 52.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 43.3 38.4 31.7 77.7 51.9 46.6 25.4 37.2 50.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 39.2 41.0 28.6 54.2 34.5 32.6 39.6 56.1 75.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 24.6 30.5 27.7 58.1 40.2 36.5 25.4 37.7 52.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 31.1 33.9 31.5 56.3 36.4 34.1 31.5 44.1 58.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 23.7 27.7 23.3 55.2 38.3 35.0 24.4 35.9 49.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 19.8 23.1 22.7 55.1 38.1 34.7 19.8 31.1 45.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 17.8 24.0 24.6 59.6 40.7 35.8 19.4 30.3 43.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 58.4 46.8 42.0 73.3 46.4 41.9 34.9 50.2 68.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 15.0 18.3 20.3 49.0 37.0 33.3 15.4 28.6 46.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 17.8 21.0 23.0 56.0 37.9 34.2 18.3 28.5 41.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 45.9 43.6 34.0 84.0 54.3 48.1 29.9 40.6 52.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 35.2 40.8 39.0 61.5 37.5 35.1 37.5 50.2 64.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 44.7 35.1 31.6 75.5 49.9 44.1 20.4 35.4 55.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 30.6 34.4 39.4 63.2 34.8 33.6 33.2 45.2 58.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 47.2 34.6 28.3 61.5 43.4 38.9 27.1 39.6 54.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 45.7 43.4 35.7 84.7 54.4 47.8 29.3 40.3 52.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 39.0 32.3 34.4 77.2 50.6 44.4 18.4 31.8 49.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 57.1 45.1 37.2 66.8 43.1 39.5 37.5 50.3 64.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 41.6 32.6 33.0 70.0 47.5 42.2 22.3 34.6 49.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 14.7 17.6 19.6 53.9 36.7 32.5 15.5 26.3 40.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 49.3 39.8 33.9 71.7 48.3 42.9 27.1 41.4 58.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 17.9 20.8 23.0 51.3 36.7 33.4 18.5 30.5 45.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 45.9 51.7 41.4 64.1 37.1 35.2 48.4 62.5 77.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 36.6 29.7 31.1 73.8 49.8 44.2 18.0 29.7 44.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------