***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.0 18.4 -0.2 46.5 47.4 15.5 16.2 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.0 18.7 0.1 51.7 51.5 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.4 17.9 18.3 -0.1 47.0 47.8 17.1 18.1 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.7 12.8 16.4 -0.5 39.6 41.6 12.4 13.4 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.5 16.3 -0.3 43.9 45.2 14.0 14.7 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.3 14.9 -0.4 41.2 42.5 12.9 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.1 18.7 0.0 50.2 50.3 15.2 16.1 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.7 14.4 -0.5 39.6 41.3 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.7 16.5 -0.2 45.9 46.9 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.5 15.0 -0.3 43.2 44.5 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.2 15.9 -0.2 44.5 45.6 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.3 15.4 -0.4 39.9 41.5 13.0 13.6 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.5 15.1 -0.3 44.1 45.0 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.4 16.6 -0.1 48.3 48.6 15.7 16.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.1 16.3 17.0 -0.7 35.9 38.2 16.1 16.9 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.6 15.9 15.8 -0.3 42.5 43.9 15.4 16.3 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.8 17.0 18.6 0.5 59.6 58.1 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.0 14.3 -0.2 44.4 45.4 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.1 18.6 0.1 51.8 51.7 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.8 12.7 -0.4 40.1 41.6 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.5 17.5 -0.2 45.5 46.5 14.9 15.6 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.8 18.3 0.3 56.2 55.2 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.5 18.2 0.0 50.5 50.6 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.0 16.3 -0.1 47.0 47.7 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 16.2 15.8 16.9 -0.1 47.6 48.4 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 15.2 14.4 14.9 -0.5 37.8 39.8 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.0 17.7 -0.1 48.5 49.2 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.1 16.7 -0.7 35.5 38.0 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.5 12.8 13.8 -0.2 44.2 45.1 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.2 18.7 -0.1 48.4 48.9 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------