***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 14.4 14.5 17.4 -1.2 27.4 31.5 14.8 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 14.3 14.6 17.8 -1.0 32.6 36.2 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 17.0 17.0 17.4 -1.2 28.1 32.5 17.3 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 12.5 12.2 15.4 -1.4 24.0 29.2 12.8 13.8 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 13.1 13.0 15.1 -1.2 25.8 31.0 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 12.4 12.5 14.0 -0.9 31.4 35.3 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 14.7 14.9 17.7 -1.0 30.8 34.7 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 8.0 8.0 13.5 -1.1 27.6 32.6 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 14.3 14.3 15.3 -1.2 26.4 31.4 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 14.3 14.4 13.9 -1.1 28.1 33.0 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 13.9 14.0 14.9 -1.0 28.9 33.7 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 12.1 12.2 14.5 -1.1 27.3 32.5 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 13.2 13.3 14.1 -1.0 29.4 34.0 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 14.9 15.0 15.6 -0.9 30.7 35.0 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 15.4 15.3 16.1 -1.4 24.5 29.0 15.7 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 14.9 15.0 14.8 -1.1 28.4 33.1 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 15.2 15.6 17.5 -0.7 37.3 40.0 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 12.4 12.5 13.4 -0.9 30.5 35.0 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 14.8 15.0 17.7 -0.9 33.4 36.8 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.5 8.6 11.9 -1.0 29.9 34.5 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 14.0 14.0 16.4 -1.3 25.5 30.4 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 14.1 14.5 17.4 -0.7 36.6 39.4 14.3 15.0 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 14.1 14.3 17.3 -0.9 32.9 36.5 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 14.5 14.7 15.4 -1.0 30.0 34.4 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 14.1 14.2 15.8 -1.2 26.9 31.5 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 13.7 13.6 13.9 -1.3 24.6 30.0 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 14.3 14.5 16.6 -1.1 28.5 32.6 14.7 15.7 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 13.0 12.8 15.7 -1.4 24.0 28.9 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 12.2 12.4 13.0 -0.8 32.5 36.5 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 14.8 14.9 17.8 -1.1 30.1 34.0 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------