***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 14.4 14.9 17.4 -0.5 38.7 40.9 14.6 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 13.8 14.9 17.8 -0.2 45.6 46.3 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 16.4 17.1 17.3 -0.5 39.8 42.1 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 12.0 11.9 15.1 -1.0 27.4 33.1 12.3 13.5 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 12.2 12.4 15.0 -0.8 32.0 36.9 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.0 13.8 -0.7 33.2 38.5 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.3 15.0 17.7 -0.3 42.9 44.4 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.0 7.7 13.4 -0.7 34.3 38.5 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 13.6 13.9 15.1 -0.7 34.1 38.1 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 13.7 13.9 13.7 -0.7 34.3 38.6 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 13.3 13.5 14.8 -0.7 35.0 39.4 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 11.5 11.6 14.4 -0.7 33.0 37.4 11.6 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 12.5 12.6 13.8 -0.8 31.5 36.3 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 14.4 14.8 15.4 -0.5 38.3 40.9 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 14.7 14.4 15.7 -1.2 24.6 29.8 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 14.1 14.1 14.6 -0.8 31.2 36.4 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 14.7 15.8 17.5 0.1 51.2 50.6 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.0 12.2 13.1 -0.6 35.4 39.2 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 14.3 15.1 17.7 -0.2 46.1 46.8 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.5 11.8 -0.6 35.8 39.8 8.4 9.0 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 13.3 13.8 16.3 -0.7 34.8 38.4 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 13.5 14.5 17.3 0.0 49.1 48.9 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 13.8 14.4 17.2 -0.3 43.8 45.2 13.9 14.6 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 14.0 14.4 15.1 -0.5 37.5 40.5 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 13.7 14.0 15.6 -0.6 35.4 38.6 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 12.8 13.0 13.8 -0.9 28.8 33.5 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 14.1 14.7 16.5 -0.5 38.6 40.8 14.3 15.5 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 12.5 12.3 15.5 -1.2 24.7 30.5 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.1 12.7 -0.6 36.1 39.7 11.9 12.9 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.2 17.8 -0.4 42.6 44.0 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------