***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 27.9 27.5 28.0 -1.7 17.2 21.9 28.6 29.5 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 27.9 27.9 28.4 -1.3 24.6 28.7 28.4 29.2 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 27.7 27.4 28.0 -1.6 18.8 23.2 28.3 29.2 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 90 10 0 100 20.5 19.7 26.1 -2.2 10.5 14.5 21.5 22.5 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 28.1 27.4 26.2 -2.0 13.2 17.2 29.0 30.0 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 26.7 26.4 24.3 -1.7 16.8 20.2 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 27.5 27.5 28.2 -1.3 23.2 27.5 28.1 29.0 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 16.3 16.0 24.7 -1.6 18.5 22.0 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 27.7 27.2 26.6 -1.8 15.4 19.2 28.4 29.3 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 27.4 27.0 25.2 -1.7 17.1 20.8 28.1 29.1 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 27.7 27.3 25.9 -1.7 15.9 19.9 28.5 29.5 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 27.0 26.7 25.7 -1.7 17.1 20.8 27.8 28.7 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 28.0 27.6 25.3 -1.9 15.2 18.9 28.9 29.8 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 27.4 27.4 26.3 -1.3 22.8 26.4 28.0 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 28.4 27.7 27.1 -2.1 11.3 15.2 29.2 30.1 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 28.6 28.1 25.7 -1.9 14.4 18.2 29.5 30.5 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 27.2 27.4 28.1 -1.1 27.8 31.5 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 26.6 26.4 24.4 -1.5 19.6 23.2 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 27.4 27.4 28.4 -1.2 25.3 29.3 27.9 28.8 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 22.5 22.4 22.6 -1.4 20.7 24.4 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 27.7 27.1 27.4 -1.8 14.7 18.9 28.4 29.4 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 27.6 27.8 27.9 -1.2 26.3 30.1 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 27.6 27.6 28.0 -1.2 25.1 29.1 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 27.1 27.0 26.2 -1.4 20.2 24.1 27.8 28.7 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 27.9 27.3 26.5 -1.8 14.6 19.0 28.6 29.6 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 27.6 27.1 25.3 -1.9 13.6 17.3 28.5 29.5 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 27.6 27.3 27.3 -1.6 17.6 22.2 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 28.3 27.5 26.5 -2.2 10.3 14.1 29.2 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 22.0 21.9 23.6 -1.3 21.9 25.4 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 27.5 27.5 28.4 -1.4 22.0 26.3 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------