***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 18.9 57.7 39.2 431.5 97.7 91.6 3.5 7.3 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 22.2 54.7 35.1 349.9 95.6 89.5 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 18.7 44.2 34.4 342.1 94.9 89.2 3.3 7.0 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 16.2 38.8 36.2 325.1 94.9 89.3 2.8 6.1 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 16.5 40.1 35.4 334.8 94.9 89.7 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 11.9 27.3 32.8 289.1 93.5 87.3 1.8 4.1 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 16.8 46.0 36.8 376.6 96.7 91.0 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 24.2 44.3 31.8 256.6 89.7 83.4 4.6 9.7 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 19.1 50.8 34.9 346.2 95.7 90.7 2.7 6.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 20.4 43.7 37.6 297.4 93.1 87.8 3.6 7.7 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 18.6 44.4 31.6 329.5 94.7 88.6 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 15.4 35.3 26.7 293.2 92.7 85.2 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 14.0 34.1 29.4 316.6 94.8 88.1 2.5 5.4 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 24.9 52.8 36.6 269.4 91.7 85.9 3.2 7.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 10.3 25.6 30.3 315.4 94.5 86.1 1.7 3.9 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 15.0 38.1 30.7 331.6 95.3 88.8 2.5 5.5 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 22.6 66.1 35.6 381.5 97.2 91.6 3.6 8.2 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 26.3 52.2 38.6 259.1 90.8 85.5 3.7 8.8 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 20.2 48.0 34.0 332.3 94.7 88.8 3.5 7.5 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 16.9 23.2 28.8 182.6 82.8 77.1 4.7 8.6 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 20.3 53.3 35.9 382.4 96.2 90.5 3.6 7.6 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 17.0 38.1 31.9 330.7 95.0 89.1 3.6 7.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 21.8 53.8 33.5 307.1 93.7 87.9 2.6 6.6 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 20.0 42.9 37.5 290.2 93.2 87.6 3.4 7.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 19.1 58.3 38.9 366.3 96.6 90.5 2.7 6.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 11.8 24.6 22.7 269.3 92.0 82.7 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 20.3 70.5 40.5 408.1 97.6 91.4 2.6 6.8 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 14.0 31.6 33.7 314.7 94.2 88.2 2.4 5.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 30.2 47.4 34.7 218.4 86.7 80.7 6.5 13.0 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 17.2 44.4 35.2 353.8 95.9 89.4 3.0 6.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------