***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.8 26.0 15.0 199.1 84.9 58.3 4.3 8.4 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.4 20.4 14.5 146.9 76.9 54.4 4.2 8.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.0 21.8 13.9 175.5 81.7 59.4 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 25.0 39.3 13.6 195.6 84.5 64.6 6.4 12.5 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 12.5 18.7 15.2 187.7 83.1 60.3 3.8 6.8 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 21.3 28.8 15.6 159.9 79.2 58.8 4.4 9.8 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.4 15.8 14.8 147.8 77.1 55.0 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.6 29.2 15.1 148.7 77.3 56.2 6.5 12.3 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.6 24.8 16.4 179.1 82.0 61.2 4.4 8.7 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.7 27.0 17.3 152.5 77.9 56.3 5.2 10.6 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.5 24.1 11.6 162.7 79.6 52.4 5.1 9.6 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.0 22.6 10.7 154.6 78.3 55.9 4.4 8.8 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 15.6 24.2 13.5 181.3 82.5 62.6 3.3 7.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.7 23.5 15.1 149.6 77.3 55.4 4.0 8.6 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 19.3 25.4 9.3 158.1 78.8 58.5 4.6 9.3 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 13.3 19.6 12.5 179.0 82.1 60.9 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 12.5 21.1 14.0 135.0 74.7 48.3 4.1 8.6 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.1 21.1 20.3 145.5 76.8 59.3 5.3 9.5 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.3 24.1 14.0 156.3 78.6 55.4 3.7 8.0 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 17.3 20.8 20.0 140.8 75.7 59.9 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.1 25.8 14.0 185.8 83.0 58.9 3.8 8.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.9 17.8 14.7 154.7 78.3 53.3 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.8 21.2 13.7 176.0 81.9 58.8 3.5 7.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.4 29.3 16.5 151.2 77.8 56.8 6.7 12.4 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 16.0 27.2 17.6 204.6 85.4 62.0 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.0 21.3 9.6 167.3 80.1 57.6 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 16.0 25.7 17.9 205.3 85.5 61.5 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 17.2 24.4 10.9 168.8 80.4 59.7 4.1 8.3 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.4 27.4 20.4 143.4 76.2 58.6 7.4 12.9 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.3 15.5 15.0 164.9 80.0 56.4 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------