***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.7 13.5 7.2 126.4 72.5 45.6 2.6 5.8 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.5 11.3 7.0 113.1 69.9 48.5 2.3 5.2 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.5 18.6 7.8 143.9 76.3 51.4 2.7 6.4 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.3 15.4 8.5 166.9 80.4 54.1 1.9 4.5 8.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.1 7.8 8.3 129.5 73.3 50.3 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.9 11.7 11.1 121.9 72.2 51.1 2.6 5.3 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.5 11.7 7.7 123.4 71.9 47.4 2.2 5.0 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.9 15.1 10.0 109.1 68.9 49.9 4.7 8.5 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.7 9.8 8.7 123.5 72.2 48.9 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.6 13.2 11.0 116.9 70.6 50.5 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.2 7.3 7.1 116.0 70.5 47.4 2.3 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.8 7.2 6.2 96.1 65.8 47.4 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.5 7.9 7.7 108.9 69.0 52.4 1.8 3.9 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.2 16.0 10.4 121.1 71.5 52.6 5.2 8.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.2 17.6 7.7 194.3 84.6 51.9 1.9 4.4 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 4.8 8.6 7.7 131.4 73.7 52.9 1.5 3.3 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.9 6.5 6.7 103.4 67.2 42.8 1.9 3.7 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.7 11.3 14.3 123.1 72.0 56.4 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.5 12.5 6.8 116.9 70.5 48.9 2.9 6.1 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.2 15.6 15.5 126.9 72.8 57.8 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.7 12.8 7.1 122.1 71.7 46.0 2.6 5.6 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.0 10.0 6.3 107.0 67.9 45.2 2.7 5.5 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.1 10.9 7.1 126.0 72.3 49.8 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.9 16.5 11.1 126.9 72.9 55.1 4.2 8.1 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.0 13.5 9.5 143.7 76.2 52.7 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.5 8.6 5.6 102.5 66.7 47.8 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.2 19.2 9.7 145.0 76.4 51.1 2.8 6.8 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.3 15.2 8.2 180.8 82.4 52.6 2.0 4.5 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.4 15.2 14.7 121.6 71.6 56.9 4.2 7.8 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.1 13.8 7.6 130.0 73.5 49.8 2.3 5.3 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------