***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 1.9 5.8 4.0 74.5 56.9 35.3 2.1 4.5 8.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 2.7 12.3 6.1 117.0 69.8 39.7 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.2 10.1 4.8 98.8 64.1 38.9 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.5 8.4 5.0 87.6 62.4 39.2 2.2 5.0 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.8 6.1 4.7 91.0 63.0 36.8 1.8 3.9 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 1.7 7.1 6.3 95.3 65.2 44.2 1.7 3.9 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.3 11.8 5.5 102.4 65.2 38.9 2.4 6.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 3.4 14.9 6.5 114.8 69.1 41.5 3.3 7.3 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.3 9.8 4.9 94.2 64.0 36.7 2.2 5.4 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 2.4 9.1 6.5 102.6 66.1 41.1 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 1.8 7.7 4.4 100.2 65.6 36.1 1.8 4.1 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.0 6.6 4.3 106.1 66.3 37.5 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 1.8 6.9 4.4 100.0 64.8 42.9 1.8 4.0 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.4 14.1 6.5 90.7 62.4 42.5 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 1.6 6.7 4.8 85.5 62.8 37.2 1.7 4.0 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.1 7.2 4.3 94.1 64.1 38.5 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 2.5 12.5 6.2 115.0 69.5 40.0 2.8 6.2 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.4 12.0 8.4 97.9 65.1 46.2 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 2.2 11.3 5.9 116.9 69.8 39.1 2.3 5.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.6 9.7 9.0 102.3 66.2 47.7 1.8 4.8 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.2 7.5 4.1 83.6 60.2 35.9 2.2 4.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 2.8 13.8 6.0 105.5 67.2 40.3 3.1 7.0 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.1 11.3 5.2 106.2 66.6 37.7 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.1 9.6 6.7 93.6 63.3 42.8 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.4 6.5 5.4 84.8 61.5 40.6 2.1 4.3 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.7 5.5 3.2 98.3 63.2 36.7 1.8 3.5 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.7 9.2 5.0 79.5 59.3 39.0 3.6 6.9 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.9 6.4 5.0 90.5 64.2 37.7 2.1 4.0 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.9 13.2 9.0 100.9 65.9 48.2 3.1 7.0 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 2.3 8.8 5.6 107.3 66.8 38.4 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------