***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 63.1 115.4 65.4 237.3 93.1 84.0 20.2 33.0 49.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 67.2 95.7 62.7 200.1 88.9 80.8 27.8 40.8 55.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 66.0 103.0 61.0 215.7 91.2 82.9 26.0 38.8 54.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 70.9 117.4 63.3 219.3 91.5 83.4 23.8 38.1 56.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 48.0 75.7 63.6 210.3 90.4 82.5 16.4 26.0 38.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 55.6 77.4 65.8 179.1 84.8 77.0 21.5 33.7 48.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 61.5 88.3 64.7 206.4 90.6 82.9 27.4 38.3 51.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 81.0 102.6 63.4 171.0 83.4 76.4 38.4 53.9 72.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 63.0 92.8 65.0 206.7 89.9 81.6 25.8 38.0 52.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 67.5 90.4 72.3 183.8 86.6 79.1 31.3 44.1 59.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 54.8 79.0 54.6 200.9 88.3 79.7 23.5 34.4 47.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 50.0 70.1 47.9 182.0 85.1 77.9 19.4 30.2 43.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 50.3 74.0 55.0 195.7 87.6 80.5 18.5 29.0 41.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 80.1 108.0 68.6 174.2 86.5 77.9 36.1 51.6 69.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 54.8 93.2 52.1 208.2 89.3 79.2 14.6 26.3 42.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 47.6 73.5 55.2 207.1 89.0 81.3 17.5 27.6 39.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 63.3 84.6 62.5 198.3 88.4 80.2 30.8 41.8 54.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 69.3 90.4 81.5 166.9 85.1 77.8 34.8 47.8 62.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 69.3 110.4 60.7 201.7 89.0 81.1 20.7 35.1 54.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 60.5 71.7 73.3 143.6 78.2 71.4 31.3 43.4 57.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 64.8 97.4 61.1 222.1 90.7 82.4 27.5 39.8 54.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 60.0 80.0 59.0 191.7 87.5 79.2 29.3 40.1 52.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 65.8 104.1 59.5 203.9 89.8 82.3 19.9 33.3 50.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 72.2 97.7 71.7 181.7 88.4 80.2 36.5 49.3 63.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 58.8 100.4 71.4 222.4 92.8 82.9 23.1 34.8 48.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 48.2 66.1 41.2 180.4 84.6 76.9 15.0 25.4 39.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 70.2 119.3 73.1 232.4 93.3 83.7 28.0 41.8 57.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 53.7 85.7 57.8 211.9 89.6 81.2 17.5 28.8 43.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 81.6 96.7 78.9 154.2 81.5 74.5 46.9 60.8 75.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 56.2 90.6 63.4 210.6 90.8 82.0 18.9 30.4 44.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------