***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 19.0 21.1 2.1 89.4 84.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 17.5 18.7 21.1 2.2 90.9 86.0 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 19.6 21.1 21.4 2.6 94.2 89.5 17.4 18.2 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 15.3 16.6 19.1 2.0 90.2 84.9 12.9 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 15.8 17.0 19.1 2.0 91.0 85.9 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 14.5 15.2 16.6 1.5 85.4 79.9 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 17.7 18.7 21.2 2.2 90.4 85.8 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 10.4 11.1 16.4 1.5 84.7 78.7 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 16.9 18.1 19.6 2.0 92.1 87.1 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 16.7 17.8 17.6 1.8 90.3 84.7 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 16.3 17.0 18.1 1.4 84.2 78.5 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 14.4 15.1 17.1 1.4 82.8 77.4 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 15.5 16.3 16.9 1.3 83.1 78.9 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 17.5 18.6 19.4 2.1 92.1 88.1 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 18.2 19.2 20.5 1.8 88.6 83.8 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 17.2 18.0 17.9 1.5 85.9 81.2 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 18.1 19.2 20.8 2.3 91.6 87.2 16.1 16.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 15.1 16.0 16.3 1.6 88.3 83.5 13.2 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 17.3 18.4 21.2 2.5 92.9 88.1 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 11.2 12.0 14.3 1.5 86.1 79.6 9.3 10.0 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 16.9 18.0 20.8 2.1 91.2 86.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 17.0 18.4 21.1 2.6 94.0 90.0 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 16.9 18.4 21.2 2.7 94.8 90.7 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 17.2 18.3 19.0 2.0 91.9 87.4 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 17.0 17.7 19.7 1.7 84.8 79.7 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 15.7 16.4 16.6 1.7 86.5 82.8 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 17.4 18.5 20.1 1.8 86.1 80.9 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 15.7 16.6 19.5 1.7 87.1 81.8 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 14.7 15.8 15.9 1.7 90.2 85.1 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 17.6 18.8 21.4 2.3 91.3 86.4 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------