***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 16.7 19.6 1.5 77.0 70.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.5 19.5 1.3 74.0 67.6 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.9 19.4 19.6 1.6 78.8 72.0 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 14.1 14.9 17.3 0.8 67.4 63.6 12.8 13.8 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 14.8 15.0 17.2 1.0 70.6 66.3 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 13.3 13.9 15.4 0.9 69.6 65.7 12.5 13.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 16.5 16.8 19.5 1.3 72.8 66.6 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 9.8 10.2 15.6 1.2 74.5 68.0 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 16.0 16.5 17.7 1.4 76.7 70.8 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 15.9 16.3 16.1 1.3 75.8 69.4 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 15.5 15.7 16.8 1.1 73.3 68.4 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 13.6 13.9 16.4 1.2 75.2 69.4 12.2 12.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 14.7 15.0 15.6 1.1 73.7 69.6 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.5 17.0 17.8 1.5 79.5 72.4 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 17.0 17.4 18.5 1.2 74.1 68.5 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 16.5 16.7 16.4 1.0 71.5 67.6 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 16.8 17.0 18.8 1.1 71.3 65.5 15.4 16.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 14.2 14.7 15.3 1.3 76.5 69.7 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.6 19.6 1.5 76.6 69.9 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 10.1 10.4 13.7 1.1 73.0 66.7 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 15.9 16.3 18.8 1.4 76.8 70.5 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 15.6 15.8 18.8 1.3 73.9 67.8 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 15.6 16.1 19.4 1.7 80.2 73.1 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.8 17.5 1.5 79.3 72.3 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 16.1 16.5 18.0 1.3 75.2 68.5 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 15.0 15.0 15.5 0.7 67.1 63.8 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 16.8 17.2 18.7 1.4 76.2 69.2 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 14.1 14.7 17.8 0.9 68.5 64.7 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 14.0 14.4 14.7 1.3 76.9 69.5 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 16.6 17.0 19.8 1.4 75.4 68.9 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------