***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 9999.0 17.1 20.0 1.7 93.1 86.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 16.4 17.3 19.9 1.5 90.9 84.2 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 18.8 19.9 20.1 1.8 94.9 88.5 17.4 17.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 14.5 15.1 17.8 1.2 84.7 78.7 13.0 13.6 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 14.8 15.5 17.7 1.3 87.9 82.0 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 13.7 14.1 15.7 1.0 83.6 77.5 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 16.6 17.4 19.9 1.5 89.9 83.2 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 9.6 10.2 15.7 1.2 87.5 80.0 8.5 9.0 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 16.1 17.0 18.2 1.5 92.7 86.2 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 15.9 16.6 16.4 1.3 90.6 83.2 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 15.5 16.1 17.1 1.2 87.3 81.3 14.4 14.9 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 13.7 14.2 16.5 1.2 87.9 81.6 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 14.9 15.4 16.0 1.1 86.9 82.0 13.7 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 16.6 17.4 18.1 1.5 93.0 86.4 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 17.3 18.0 19.0 1.3 88.3 82.1 15.9 16.5 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 16.4 17.0 16.8 1.2 86.1 80.9 15.3 15.7 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 16.9 17.6 19.3 1.4 89.7 83.3 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 14.2 15.0 15.5 1.2 89.4 81.5 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 16.4 17.1 20.0 1.7 93.1 86.9 15.2 15.7 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 10.2 10.6 13.7 1.0 85.0 77.0 9.2 9.6 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 15.8 16.6 19.3 1.6 93.2 86.4 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 15.8 16.5 19.4 1.6 92.5 86.9 14.7 15.1 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 15.7 16.5 19.8 1.9 95.3 89.6 14.7 15.1 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 16.3 17.2 17.8 1.5 93.4 86.1 15.2 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 16.1 16.8 18.5 1.4 90.9 83.7 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 15.0 15.3 15.8 1.0 83.5 78.7 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 16.6 17.6 19.1 1.5 92.0 84.7 15.1 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 14.8 15.3 18.2 1.1 83.7 77.8 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 13.8 14.5 14.9 1.2 89.3 81.1 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 16.7 17.4 20.2 1.6 91.7 85.1 15.5 15.9 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------