***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 9999.0 33.0 32.8 3.9 94.0 88.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 31.4 33.7 33.0 4.0 94.1 87.9 28.4 29.6 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 31.7 34.2 33.0 4.1 94.0 87.8 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 24.9 26.7 30.3 3.3 89.6 84.4 21.6 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 32.4 34.4 30.9 3.5 91.0 85.4 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 30.6 31.6 27.2 2.4 83.2 78.6 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 31.3 33.5 32.6 3.7 93.3 87.3 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 19.9 21.2 28.2 3.0 87.7 81.6 16.9 18.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 31.8 34.3 31.8 3.8 93.4 87.3 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 31.5 33.6 29.6 3.6 91.7 85.4 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 31.8 33.6 30.1 3.2 89.1 83.5 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 31.0 32.4 29.3 3.0 87.4 81.9 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 31.9 33.4 29.4 3.0 87.8 82.8 28.8 30.0 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 31.0 33.1 30.9 3.7 92.6 85.1 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 32.4 34.0 32.0 3.2 89.6 84.4 29.5 30.7 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 32.8 34.4 30.0 3.1 88.7 83.6 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 31.0 33.7 32.6 4.0 95.0 89.1 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 30.2 31.8 28.3 3.3 89.6 82.4 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 31.0 33.5 33.1 4.2 94.8 88.4 28.0 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 26.2 27.5 25.9 2.7 86.0 78.9 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 31.8 34.0 32.5 3.8 92.2 86.2 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 31.3 34.1 32.7 4.2 96.1 90.3 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 31.0 33.7 33.0 4.3 95.2 88.5 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 30.8 32.8 30.6 3.6 91.7 84.5 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 32.0 34.0 31.3 3.5 91.2 85.4 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 31.4 32.5 28.8 2.6 84.4 79.5 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 31.5 33.6 31.9 3.6 92.5 86.6 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 32.3 33.6 30.8 3.0 87.6 82.6 29.5 30.6 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 25.8 27.4 27.3 3.1 88.6 81.0 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 31.4 33.8 33.1 4.0 93.9 87.9 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------