***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 9999.0 31.7 32.1 3.2 89.5 81.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 30.7 32.2 32.0 3.1 88.1 80.7 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 30.5 32.4 32.3 3.3 90.3 82.3 27.5 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 23.7 24.9 30.3 2.5 84.2 75.5 20.6 21.9 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 31.2 32.6 30.4 2.7 86.1 77.6 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 29.8 31.0 27.9 2.5 84.4 76.4 26.8 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 30.4 31.9 31.7 2.9 87.3 79.4 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 19.0 20.2 28.6 2.8 86.3 78.1 16.4 17.5 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 30.6 32.3 30.8 3.1 89.0 80.4 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 30.3 31.8 29.4 3.0 88.1 79.6 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 30.7 32.2 29.9 2.8 86.9 78.6 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 29.9 31.2 29.8 2.8 86.5 78.6 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 31.1 32.5 29.3 2.8 85.9 78.1 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 30.3 31.9 30.2 3.2 89.2 81.8 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 31.3 32.5 31.0 2.6 86.2 77.0 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 31.8 33.2 29.7 2.6 85.3 77.2 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 29.9 31.5 31.4 3.0 87.3 79.9 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 29.2 30.6 28.5 3.0 87.8 79.4 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 30.2 31.9 32.2 3.3 89.3 82.1 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 25.2 26.3 26.1 2.6 84.1 76.1 22.6 23.8 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 30.7 32.4 31.7 3.1 89.2 80.7 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 30.6 32.3 31.5 3.1 88.2 81.5 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 30.2 31.9 32.1 3.5 90.5 83.3 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 30.0 31.7 30.3 3.3 89.9 81.8 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 30.9 32.5 30.6 2.9 88.4 79.3 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 30.7 31.7 29.1 2.3 81.2 74.5 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 30.4 32.1 31.2 3.0 88.7 79.9 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 31.2 32.2 30.6 2.4 83.6 75.0 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 24.7 26.1 27.4 2.9 87.0 78.7 21.9 23.1 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 30.5 32.1 32.2 3.2 88.6 81.0 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------