***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 31.4 31.3 2.3 80.6 72.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 30.9 31.5 31.1 2.2 77.7 70.4 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 31.0 31.9 31.5 2.5 81.6 73.4 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 24.1 24.8 29.6 1.9 76.5 69.4 21.3 22.6 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 31.7 32.5 29.6 2.1 78.0 70.8 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 30.1 30.8 27.1 1.9 76.9 69.9 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 30.4 31.0 30.8 2.0 76.1 69.1 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 19.3 20.1 27.8 2.2 79.1 72.0 16.6 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 31.0 31.9 30.0 2.3 80.5 72.8 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 30.8 31.6 28.5 2.3 80.1 72.6 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 31.3 32.2 29.2 2.2 79.7 72.4 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 30.5 31.4 29.1 2.2 79.7 72.5 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 31.8 32.6 28.6 2.1 78.7 71.6 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 30.7 31.5 29.3 2.3 79.2 71.5 27.8 29.1 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 31.6 32.4 30.3 2.0 79.6 71.6 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 32.3 33.2 29.0 2.1 78.2 71.2 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 30.2 30.7 30.4 1.9 75.6 68.7 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 29.8 30.4 27.5 2.3 78.9 71.6 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 30.6 31.4 31.3 2.4 79.7 72.0 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 25.8 26.4 25.2 2.0 76.4 69.7 22.9 24.3 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 31.0 31.9 30.9 2.4 80.6 72.7 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.5 30.5 2.1 77.4 70.1 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 30.7 31.5 31.2 2.5 81.4 73.4 28.0 29.1 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 30.5 31.3 29.4 2.4 80.6 72.8 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 31.2 32.1 29.9 2.3 80.2 72.1 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 31.3 31.7 28.4 1.7 74.2 68.0 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 30.7 31.6 30.3 2.2 79.8 71.5 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 31.6 32.2 29.9 1.9 76.4 69.4 29.0 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 25.3 26.0 26.4 2.1 77.8 70.7 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 30.8 31.5 31.3 2.2 78.8 71.2 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------