***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 30.3 30.3 1.5 72.6 65.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.4 30.2 30.0 1.3 68.0 62.1 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 30.4 30.9 30.4 1.6 72.9 66.3 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 23.0 23.9 28.7 1.0 66.0 61.3 21.0 22.5 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.5 31.5 28.6 1.2 68.1 62.9 28.5 29.9 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 30.1 30.1 26.3 1.2 68.5 63.7 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 28.9 29.8 29.8 1.2 67.3 61.5 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.3 19.3 26.7 1.2 68.4 63.2 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 30.7 31.0 28.9 1.5 71.6 65.4 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 30.5 30.8 27.5 1.4 70.4 64.5 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 31.1 31.2 28.2 1.3 70.0 64.5 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 30.4 30.5 28.0 1.3 69.6 64.4 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 31.5 31.5 27.6 1.3 68.9 64.1 28.4 29.9 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 30.3 30.4 28.2 1.4 70.5 64.4 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 30.2 31.4 29.4 1.2 69.1 63.6 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 32.1 32.2 28.0 1.2 68.4 63.6 29.1 30.6 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.6 29.4 29.4 1.1 66.6 60.7 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.5 29.6 26.4 1.3 69.3 63.7 26.6 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 30.0 30.1 30.2 1.4 69.8 63.5 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.3 24.1 1.0 64.2 60.1 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 30.8 31.2 29.8 1.5 72.1 65.8 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.2 30.0 29.5 1.2 67.6 61.4 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 30.1 30.3 30.0 1.6 72.1 65.4 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 30.0 30.4 28.3 1.5 72.0 65.6 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 30.8 31.2 28.9 1.4 71.1 64.8 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 30.1 30.6 27.4 0.9 64.2 60.7 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 30.3 30.6 29.4 1.4 71.3 64.8 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.5 31.3 29.0 1.0 66.3 61.7 28.5 30.0 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 24.1 25.1 25.3 1.2 67.8 62.5 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 30.1 30.3 30.3 1.3 69.4 63.3 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------