***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 9999.0 32.0 31.6 2.7 94.7 87.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 30.4 31.9 31.5 2.6 92.6 85.8 28.4 29.2 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 30.5 32.5 31.8 2.9 95.1 88.4 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 23.9 25.2 29.7 2.2 89.6 82.5 21.5 22.5 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 31.4 33.0 29.9 2.4 91.8 84.9 29.0 30.0 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 29.9 31.1 27.1 2.0 87.9 81.9 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 30.1 31.5 31.2 2.4 91.7 84.6 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 19.0 20.4 27.8 2.3 91.5 84.8 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 30.7 32.5 30.4 2.7 94.6 87.6 28.4 29.3 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 30.5 32.3 28.7 2.6 93.8 86.7 28.2 29.1 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 30.9 32.5 29.4 2.4 92.1 85.5 28.5 29.5 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 30.1 31.6 29.1 2.3 91.5 85.3 27.8 28.7 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 31.3 32.7 28.7 2.3 90.5 84.7 28.9 29.9 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 30.3 32.0 29.6 2.7 93.8 86.8 28.1 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 31.4 32.8 30.7 2.3 90.7 83.6 29.2 30.1 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 32.0 33.5 29.2 2.3 90.5 84.3 29.5 30.5 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 29.8 31.3 30.9 2.5 92.4 85.5 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 29.3 30.9 27.7 2.5 92.9 85.4 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 30.1 31.9 31.7 2.8 93.8 87.4 27.9 28.8 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 25.4 26.7 25.3 2.1 89.4 82.1 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 30.7 32.6 31.2 2.7 94.4 87.4 28.4 29.3 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 30.3 32.0 31.1 2.7 93.5 87.2 28.1 29.0 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 30.2 31.9 31.6 3.0 95.0 88.8 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 30.0 31.8 29.6 2.7 94.5 87.3 27.8 28.6 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 30.9 32.7 30.2 2.5 93.3 85.7 28.6 29.5 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 30.8 31.9 28.4 1.9 86.4 80.7 28.5 29.5 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 30.3 32.1 30.7 2.6 93.8 86.1 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 31.4 32.5 30.1 2.1 88.4 81.7 29.2 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 24.9 26.5 26.6 2.3 92.1 84.5 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 30.3 32.0 31.7 2.7 93.2 86.3 28.2 29.0 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------