***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 9999.0 3.5 5.8 40.9 39.4 24.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 2.6 6.6 6.5 46.9 43.0 25.1 4.0 9.0 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 2.5 6.2 7.2 51.7 46.0 27.6 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 2.0 4.7 7.5 49.6 43.2 26.7 2.9 6.2 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 2.6 5.5 7.0 47.2 43.2 26.9 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 2.4 5.6 9.8 63.7 49.8 31.4 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 2.1 4.1 5.7 42.0 39.4 24.5 3.0 6.6 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 3.4 7.7 7.0 49.7 44.4 29.6 4.4 9.5 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 2.5 5.1 6.5 43.7 41.9 26.1 3.4 7.2 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 2.9 6.3 7.5 47.7 43.7 27.9 3.9 8.1 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 2.5 5.4 6.2 47.2 43.1 27.8 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 2.6 5.2 5.6 47.5 43.6 29.4 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 2.2 4.0 6.7 48.3 43.0 29.1 2.5 5.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 2.3 7.7 9.7 60.1 49.0 28.0 3.3 8.1 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 1.4 3.5 6.8 52.1 44.8 26.4 1.9 4.4 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 2.2 4.6 6.6 48.0 42.7 28.7 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 3.2 7.0 6.0 48.4 43.8 25.6 4.2 8.7 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 3.6 8.9 9.3 56.0 46.0 28.6 4.9 10.6 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 2.3 6.5 7.2 50.1 44.7 25.6 3.6 8.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 4.2 8.8 9.0 59.5 46.9 30.4 5.7 9.6 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 2.2 4.6 6.6 44.7 41.9 25.8 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 2.2 5.3 6.4 48.5 43.6 25.0 3.4 6.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 1.9 5.5 8.3 54.4 46.1 26.2 2.7 6.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 3.2 8.0 8.9 56.8 46.5 27.9 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 1.9 3.6 6.6 42.9 38.4 24.9 2.7 6.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 2.3 5.2 6.3 56.5 47.3 30.5 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 2.3 3.6 6.0 39.7 36.6 24.2 2.8 7.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 2.0 5.0 7.4 52.3 44.8 27.6 3.0 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 4.4 11.4 9.5 57.8 46.8 29.1 6.3 12.7 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 2.2 5.0 6.4 45.5 42.1 25.1 3.3 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------