***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 8.2 4.8 70.3 55.2 36.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.7 6.8 5.2 58.7 49.5 35.3 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.2 7.4 4.2 60.2 50.0 34.7 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 4.9 9.9 3.6 50.8 46.2 29.9 5.7 11.4 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 3.1 6.5 3.7 54.6 46.7 30.3 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 4.0 8.0 4.7 45.4 44.0 28.2 5.0 10.0 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.2 6.1 5.7 62.5 50.7 35.5 3.1 6.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 5.5 11.7 4.2 60.2 49.2 30.9 6.4 11.9 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 3.9 8.4 4.0 56.4 47.2 30.1 4.8 9.3 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 4.6 9.4 4.4 55.8 47.3 30.9 5.2 10.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 5.2 9.4 3.2 56.0 47.9 30.0 5.7 10.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 3.7 8.1 3.0 58.7 49.4 28.4 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 2.7 5.7 3.4 48.1 45.1 28.3 3.0 7.3 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.9 6.6 4.9 48.4 43.7 31.6 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 3.7 8.7 3.8 53.1 48.9 30.8 4.4 9.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 3.7 7.1 3.5 52.3 46.9 29.8 4.2 7.9 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.4 7.8 6.6 66.3 50.9 34.5 3.4 7.5 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 4.5 7.8 5.3 52.6 45.2 31.1 5.0 9.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.1 7.7 4.7 55.4 48.5 35.0 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.1 7.6 6.0 55.8 46.3 32.0 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 4.1 8.7 3.9 61.1 49.3 31.7 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 3.6 7.5 6.1 58.6 48.3 33.7 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.3 6.1 4.1 50.7 45.9 33.4 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.0 9.1 4.8 53.0 45.2 31.6 5.3 11.1 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.6 7.9 5.2 62.3 51.3 35.7 3.8 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 3.6 7.5 2.7 46.7 45.2 27.6 4.7 8.9 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.6 9.7 5.8 68.1 54.5 37.3 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 3.0 6.7 3.5 50.6 47.1 29.4 3.6 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 7.1 11.5 5.4 51.4 44.4 31.1 7.9 13.6 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.5 4.9 4.9 59.7 50.0 35.7 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------