***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 9999.0 5.7 4.5 76.3 56.3 31.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.0 7.3 5.3 78.9 58.2 35.7 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 2.1 5.7 3.9 62.4 50.8 31.5 2.5 5.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 1.5 6.6 4.7 87.5 61.3 32.1 1.8 4.2 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 1.0 4.4 4.5 81.2 58.7 30.6 1.4 3.0 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 1.5 5.0 6.0 65.2 54.4 30.4 1.8 4.2 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 1.6 6.6 5.7 83.8 59.9 37.1 1.9 4.4 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 3.0 9.3 5.4 71.8 55.2 32.2 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 1.6 5.5 4.7 76.7 56.8 30.9 2.0 4.3 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 2.5 7.6 5.4 70.2 54.5 32.7 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 1.4 4.5 3.9 75.2 56.6 30.1 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 1.3 4.2 3.8 69.7 54.7 28.3 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 1.2 3.4 4.3 63.6 53.5 28.5 1.4 3.0 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.0 9.6 5.9 68.9 54.8 35.5 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 1.2 6.5 4.5 89.2 62.2 31.6 1.7 3.9 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 0.9 3.0 4.0 68.4 54.7 29.4 1.1 2.5 4.7 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 1.5 5.0 5.8 83.2 60.3 37.6 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 2.5 5.8 6.6 64.2 52.7 34.8 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.4 7.0 5.0 75.2 56.7 34.8 2.7 5.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 2.8 7.6 8.3 69.2 54.9 36.0 3.0 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 2.2 7.4 4.0 75.5 56.4 31.1 2.6 5.7 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 1.9 5.5 6.1 82.0 60.1 37.5 2.0 3.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.4 6.1 4.8 71.9 55.4 34.2 2.8 5.1 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 3.4 7.8 5.2 61.9 51.2 33.4 3.9 7.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 1.7 6.8 5.3 86.3 59.6 34.5 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 1.5 3.9 3.5 62.1 52.2 29.3 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 2.0 8.9 5.6 81.6 58.4 33.7 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 1.2 5.1 4.4 81.5 59.6 30.6 1.5 3.5 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 3.0 7.5 7.5 69.0 54.6 36.3 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 2.3 7.7 4.9 74.2 56.1 34.5 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------