***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 9999.0 10.4 4.4 66.9 55.9 34.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.8 9.9 5.9 91.9 65.2 42.3 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.3 8.8 4.8 77.1 60.3 40.2 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.8 8.0 4.0 72.5 58.0 37.3 2.6 5.8 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.7 4.7 4.3 74.4 59.2 37.8 1.8 3.4 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.3 7.4 6.4 83.7 61.9 41.2 2.2 4.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.3 10.8 5.7 83.9 62.8 40.4 2.2 5.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 3.7 11.1 5.7 80.4 59.7 41.3 3.7 7.8 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.1 7.3 4.3 69.8 57.9 37.4 2.0 5.2 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 2.2 6.9 5.6 78.2 59.4 40.3 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.0 6.6 4.5 83.1 61.7 39.9 2.0 4.3 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 1.9 5.1 4.1 76.6 58.8 38.0 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.2 6.4 5.0 85.1 62.0 38.9 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.3 13.9 7.1 87.7 63.1 42.2 4.2 8.8 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.9 5.5 3.3 68.9 56.1 37.0 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.3 7.4 4.9 89.8 63.3 39.9 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.0 9.9 5.3 80.8 61.7 40.2 3.3 6.5 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 2.7 9.6 6.8 77.0 58.2 39.8 2.9 6.8 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.7 10.6 6.0 95.8 66.2 42.7 2.7 5.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 2.8 10.0 8.5 86.0 61.3 43.4 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 2.4 7.1 3.8 66.7 56.3 36.1 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.6 15.2 6.0 99.1 66.4 43.2 3.7 8.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.5 11.4 6.2 95.6 66.0 42.9 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 2.6 8.0 5.9 76.0 58.5 40.0 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.3 6.5 4.7 70.5 58.2 38.4 2.3 4.8 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 1.8 5.6 4.0 82.8 60.1 36.4 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.2 9.2 5.4 76.6 60.2 38.6 3.5 6.7 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.2 6.0 4.0 77.3 59.3 37.9 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 3.0 10.9 7.6 82.4 60.2 41.2 3.1 7.2 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.9 6.8 5.7 88.9 64.0 41.4 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------