***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 18.8 19.5 58.2 33.8 31.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 26.1 32.4 22.9 64.0 38.1 34.6 28.9 41.3 55.8 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 22.7 27.5 20.1 60.3 35.6 32.6 25.7 38.2 53.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 19.0 23.8 19.9 59.9 33.9 30.3 23.1 37.5 55.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 14.0 17.0 19.5 59.3 34.2 31.0 16.4 26.3 38.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 20.1 26.6 26.8 63.2 38.2 32.4 22.9 35.0 49.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 23.6 29.2 22.8 62.9 37.9 34.4 26.1 37.6 50.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 35.2 40.1 22.2 62.2 34.8 31.9 38.8 54.0 71.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 22.8 26.3 19.5 56.8 33.4 30.3 26.0 38.2 52.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 27.1 31.4 22.9 59.4 32.5 29.9 31.6 43.9 58.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 20.7 25.3 17.7 60.5 36.5 32.5 23.2 34.1 46.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 17.4 21.2 16.6 59.5 36.4 32.6 19.1 29.7 42.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 15.6 19.7 19.4 57.8 34.9 31.4 18.6 29.1 42.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 29.9 38.6 27.6 64.3 37.0 33.0 35.2 50.0 67.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 11.0 16.5 18.3 61.3 36.8 30.4 14.2 25.9 42.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 15.3 19.9 18.9 59.8 36.2 31.9 18.1 28.1 40.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 27.5 34.5 23.7 66.0 40.4 36.0 30.1 40.8 52.9 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 29.4 34.3 28.0 61.2 31.7 29.4 35.3 48.3 63.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 19.4 26.8 22.9 64.2 39.5 35.4 21.6 36.1 54.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 29.1 33.5 31.7 66.6 34.8 32.1 32.3 44.3 58.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 24.5 28.3 18.3 57.0 33.4 30.5 28.1 40.2 54.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 27.3 36.0 24.5 66.3 41.9 37.1 30.9 41.2 52.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 18.0 25.2 23.3 64.1 39.7 35.0 20.3 33.5 50.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 31.5 36.8 24.8 60.6 32.5 30.0 37.0 49.6 63.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 19.8 22.1 21.9 59.7 31.4 29.7 23.2 34.6 48.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 14.8 18.9 16.5 60.2 39.0 34.0 15.3 26.0 39.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 25.6 28.8 22.8 60.6 33.2 31.3 28.8 41.8 57.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 13.5 19.0 19.3 61.0 36.5 30.9 16.9 28.1 42.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 39.4 45.7 29.9 63.8 32.7 30.6 46.0 59.9 75.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 17.1 21.6 21.9 62.2 36.8 33.8 19.2 30.1 43.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------