***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.1 19.0 0.1 52.1 51.1 15.2 16.0 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.8 18.8 0.1 52.8 51.6 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 18.2 18.0 19.3 0.1 52.3 51.4 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.5 16.7 0.2 53.9 52.9 12.4 13.3 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.7 17.0 0.1 51.2 50.6 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.8 14.6 0.2 54.8 53.3 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 16.2 15.9 18.8 0.0 50.3 49.6 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.9 14.3 -0.2 45.2 45.9 8.3 9.1 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.9 17.1 0.1 52.9 52.1 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.7 15.3 0.0 49.7 49.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.2 16.4 -0.3 43.9 44.7 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.4 15.5 -0.2 45.4 46.3 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 14.0 14.6 15.1 -0.1 46.5 47.6 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.6 16.3 16.7 0.0 49.5 49.2 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.1 16.8 18.3 -0.1 47.2 47.4 16.2 16.9 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.2 16.0 0.0 49.7 49.9 15.5 16.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 16.6 16.6 18.6 0.2 54.7 53.2 15.5 16.3 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.1 14.4 0.0 49.1 48.9 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 16.1 15.9 18.9 0.1 52.3 51.2 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.0 12.4 -0.1 48.4 48.3 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.5 18.3 0.0 51.0 50.3 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.6 18.7 0.2 54.4 53.1 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.3 18.9 0.0 49.9 49.3 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.1 16.6 0.0 49.7 49.3 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 16.0 15.8 17.9 0.1 51.9 51.1 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.0 14.7 0.2 53.7 52.8 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.2 18.5 0.2 53.5 52.4 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.8 17.1 0.1 52.4 51.6 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.4 12.9 13.7 -0.1 47.0 47.2 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.3 16.1 19.1 0.1 51.2 50.4 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------