***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.2 19.1 0.7 64.1 59.6 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.7 16.0 19.0 0.7 63.9 58.9 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.7 19.5 0.8 65.9 60.2 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 15.1 15.5 17.3 1.3 76.3 68.5 12.8 13.8 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 14.9 14.9 17.0 0.9 69.5 63.6 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 13.8 14.1 15.2 1.0 73.5 66.5 12.5 13.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.2 19.0 0.6 61.6 57.2 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.7 14.8 0.6 64.3 60.5 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.2 17.0 1.0 70.8 64.5 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 15.9 16.0 15.5 0.9 68.7 63.4 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.3 16.5 0.7 64.8 60.3 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.4 15.6 0.6 63.5 59.7 12.2 12.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 14.7 14.8 14.8 0.8 69.0 63.6 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.2 16.5 0.5 60.8 57.5 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 17.1 17.4 18.6 1.2 74.8 67.5 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 16.5 16.7 15.9 1.0 71.5 65.1 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.7 18.8 0.8 64.9 59.9 15.4 16.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 14.2 14.3 14.3 0.8 68.7 63.8 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.1 19.1 0.7 63.7 58.6 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.6 10.2 12.2 0.7 68.0 63.6 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.8 18.4 0.9 67.6 62.3 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.4 18.7 0.7 63.8 59.1 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.3 18.9 0.6 61.7 57.2 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.7 16.1 16.5 0.7 66.0 61.1 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 16.1 16.0 17.8 0.9 66.9 62.4 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 15.0 15.2 14.9 1.0 72.9 66.1 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.5 18.4 0.8 65.7 61.2 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 14.8 15.2 17.7 1.4 77.8 69.6 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.9 13.8 0.7 66.6 62.2 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.4 19.2 0.7 63.3 58.3 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------