***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 30.2 28.7 28.3 -1.0 36.3 37.9 28.4 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 30.0 28.6 28.6 -1.1 35.3 37.1 28.4 29.6 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 30.2 28.5 28.5 -1.1 35.2 36.8 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 23.4 22.2 25.7 -0.6 41.6 42.4 21.6 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 28.6 28.9 26.5 -1.2 33.6 35.2 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 29.3 27.6 24.1 -1.1 34.0 35.6 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.9 28.3 28.3 -1.1 34.1 36.1 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.6 16.9 24.4 -1.2 33.9 35.3 16.9 18.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 30.3 28.8 27.6 -1.0 37.1 38.4 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.9 28.5 25.4 -0.9 37.7 38.9 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 28.1 28.2 26.8 -1.5 31.1 32.7 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 29.6 27.7 25.8 -1.4 32.5 33.8 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 28.3 28.4 26.5 -1.6 29.2 30.5 28.8 30.0 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 27.8 27.9 26.6 -1.3 31.8 33.9 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 31.2 29.7 28.6 -1.0 35.7 37.1 29.5 30.7 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 29.1 29.2 26.4 -1.5 30.5 32.0 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 29.5 28.2 28.3 -0.9 37.9 39.7 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 28.9 27.1 24.1 -1.3 33.0 34.7 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 29.6 28.2 28.6 -1.1 36.1 37.9 28.0 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 22.8 22.9 22.1 -1.4 30.9 32.8 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 28.2 28.5 28.0 -1.2 33.6 35.3 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.9 28.7 28.2 -0.8 38.9 40.8 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 29.6 28.2 28.6 -1.1 36.0 37.8 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 27.5 27.7 26.6 -1.4 31.7 33.6 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 28.3 28.5 26.9 -1.4 31.1 33.1 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 28.1 28.1 25.5 -1.5 31.1 32.6 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 28.0 28.3 27.5 -1.2 33.1 35.1 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 31.0 29.9 26.9 -0.8 39.1 40.2 29.5 30.6 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 24.4 22.6 23.4 -1.3 32.9 34.7 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.9 28.4 28.5 -1.1 35.0 36.7 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------