***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.3 30.0 0.2 52.9 53.4 27.8 29.1 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.1 30.0 0.2 52.6 53.1 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.1 30.5 0.4 55.3 55.2 27.5 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 23.4 23.2 28.5 1.2 66.8 63.8 20.6 21.9 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 29.9 30.0 29.0 0.6 57.6 56.6 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.8 26.6 0.7 60.0 58.1 26.8 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 29.0 28.7 29.7 0.0 50.3 51.1 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.9 27.2 0.5 56.9 55.8 16.4 17.5 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.5 29.6 0.7 59.7 58.2 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 29.0 29.4 28.0 0.9 61.7 59.6 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.3 29.2 0.4 54.9 54.4 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.5 28.6 0.4 55.2 54.4 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.7 28.7 0.3 54.2 53.7 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 28.9 28.7 28.3 0.2 52.1 52.4 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.1 30.3 30.3 0.6 59.1 58.0 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.5 30.6 28.9 0.5 57.1 56.1 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 28.6 28.5 29.8 0.3 54.7 54.7 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.1 28.2 26.9 0.7 59.1 57.5 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 28.9 28.7 30.2 0.3 53.8 54.0 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 24.2 24.1 24.6 0.5 56.0 55.1 22.6 23.8 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.3 30.0 0.4 55.2 54.9 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.2 29.7 0.4 55.8 55.6 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 28.9 28.8 30.3 0.3 53.4 53.5 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 28.7 28.7 28.7 0.4 55.6 55.1 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 29.6 29.4 28.7 0.2 53.3 53.6 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.6 28.5 0.5 56.6 56.0 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 29.1 28.9 29.1 0.1 52.0 52.6 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 30.9 30.6 29.3 1.0 64.5 62.0 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 23.5 23.7 26.0 0.6 58.3 56.9 21.9 23.1 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.2 28.9 30.1 0.2 52.1 52.8 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------