***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 30.2 30.5 30.5 0.8 61.2 57.2 28.5 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.9 30.2 0.5 57.1 53.7 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.9 30.4 31.0 1.0 63.2 58.3 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 24.1 25.0 29.9 2.2 78.7 70.7 21.3 22.6 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 30.7 31.8 29.8 1.6 70.5 64.3 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 30.2 30.8 27.5 2.0 76.9 69.1 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 29.6 29.4 29.9 0.4 55.0 52.3 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.2 19.1 28.3 1.5 68.4 62.8 16.6 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 29.8 31.0 29.9 1.6 70.5 64.1 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 30.5 30.8 28.8 1.7 71.0 64.4 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 30.2 31.2 29.7 1.5 69.0 63.3 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 29.4 30.4 29.8 1.4 68.1 62.8 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 31.6 31.8 28.9 1.6 70.4 64.6 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.5 28.2 0.4 55.0 52.4 27.8 29.1 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 31.5 32.3 30.9 2.1 77.6 70.3 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 32.3 32.7 29.6 1.8 73.9 67.2 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 29.2 29.1 29.8 0.5 56.5 53.3 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 29.5 29.5 27.7 1.4 67.5 61.7 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.6 30.5 0.6 58.2 54.5 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 24.7 25.5 25.3 1.2 66.3 61.2 22.9 24.3 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 29.9 30.6 30.4 1.2 66.0 60.8 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.8 29.8 0.5 57.4 54.0 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.6 30.5 0.6 57.4 53.9 28.0 29.1 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.7 28.9 1.0 62.4 57.8 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 30.1 30.9 29.1 1.2 66.8 61.5 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 31.3 31.5 29.7 1.7 72.2 66.4 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.7 30.1 29.5 0.9 62.1 57.9 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 31.7 32.5 30.4 2.3 79.8 71.9 29.0 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 24.1 24.8 26.5 1.2 65.3 60.3 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.7 29.8 30.3 0.6 58.1 54.5 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------