***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 27.9 29.6 29.3 0.1 51.4 51.9 28.1 29.5 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 27.2 28.8 29.1 -0.1 49.2 49.8 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 27.4 29.2 29.7 0.2 52.7 52.4 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 24.3 24.0 28.4 1.3 67.7 64.0 21.0 22.5 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 30.5 30.7 28.4 0.7 58.7 57.7 28.5 29.9 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 30.1 29.6 26.0 0.9 63.2 61.0 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 26.8 28.3 28.9 -0.2 47.0 48.3 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.3 26.7 0.5 56.6 56.2 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.7 29.9 28.5 0.7 58.7 57.5 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.8 27.3 0.7 58.8 57.6 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 30.0 30.1 28.2 0.5 56.8 56.5 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.3 28.3 0.5 56.3 56.3 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 30.5 30.6 27.5 0.6 58.3 58.0 28.4 29.9 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 27.1 28.5 27.0 -0.3 46.5 47.9 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 31.5 31.2 29.5 1.3 67.3 63.7 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 31.1 31.6 28.2 0.9 61.6 60.2 29.1 30.6 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 26.4 28.1 28.8 0.0 49.9 50.2 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.5 28.4 26.2 0.4 55.3 54.8 26.6 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 26.8 28.5 29.4 0.0 50.0 50.4 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.6 23.8 0.4 55.5 55.5 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.7 29.0 0.4 55.1 54.6 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 27.0 28.7 28.8 0.1 50.9 51.0 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 27.0 28.5 29.3 -0.1 48.8 49.6 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 26.9 28.6 27.5 0.1 51.4 51.6 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.9 27.9 0.5 57.0 56.1 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 31.0 30.2 28.2 0.7 59.6 59.1 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.3 29.1 28.4 0.2 52.9 53.0 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 31.8 31.5 28.9 1.4 68.5 64.8 28.5 30.0 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 21.9 23.8 25.0 0.2 53.2 53.4 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 27.0 28.7 29.2 0.0 49.4 50.0 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------