***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 29.9 29.5 29.5 0.0 50.9 51.1 28.6 29.5 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 28.2 29.1 29.5 -0.1 47.7 48.7 28.4 29.2 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.3 29.9 0.1 52.3 51.9 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 23.6 23.7 28.1 1.0 70.6 66.8 21.5 22.5 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.3 30.4 28.4 0.4 57.7 56.3 29.0 30.0 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.9 29.2 26.0 0.6 63.2 60.7 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 27.9 28.7 29.2 -0.2 44.8 46.4 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.1 18.1 26.6 0.3 56.1 54.8 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.8 28.9 0.5 60.0 57.9 28.4 29.3 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.7 27.4 0.6 61.3 58.8 28.2 29.1 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.8 29.7 28.5 0.2 54.0 53.4 28.5 29.5 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 29.1 29.0 28.1 0.2 54.3 53.6 27.8 28.7 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 30.2 30.1 27.9 0.2 54.3 53.8 28.9 29.9 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 27.9 28.7 27.5 -0.3 44.5 45.6 28.1 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 31.0 30.9 29.8 0.7 64.7 62.5 29.2 30.1 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 30.9 31.0 28.3 0.4 58.6 57.2 29.5 30.5 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 27.5 28.5 29.2 0.0 49.6 50.1 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.3 28.3 26.2 0.3 56.0 54.4 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 27.7 28.7 29.7 0.0 49.2 49.7 27.9 28.8 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.5 24.3 23.9 0.2 53.7 52.6 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.7 29.5 29.3 0.2 53.8 53.0 28.4 29.3 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 28.0 29.1 29.2 0.1 51.3 51.4 28.1 29.0 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 27.9 28.8 29.7 -0.1 48.3 48.7 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.7 27.9 0.0 50.5 50.0 27.8 28.6 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.7 28.2 0.2 53.1 52.8 28.6 29.5 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 29.8 29.8 27.9 0.4 56.7 55.8 28.5 29.5 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.1 28.6 0.0 50.2 50.6 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 31.1 31.1 28.9 1.0 69.6 66.2 29.2 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.9 23.8 25.2 0.2 54.1 52.9 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 28.0 28.9 29.5 -0.1 47.8 48.8 28.2 29.0 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------