***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 16.8 19.1 19.2 149.3 77.4 71.7 3.2 6.9 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 19.8 20.6 13.1 121.8 71.6 64.9 4.0 9.0 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 16.0 17.9 16.9 133.2 74.3 68.5 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 13.1 16.1 19.4 142.2 76.0 69.8 2.9 6.2 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 15.1 17.7 19.2 147.5 77.0 70.8 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 12.2 15.5 20.7 148.0 77.0 69.7 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 13.5 15.1 13.6 125.2 72.5 65.1 3.0 6.6 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 20.6 23.4 20.8 135.5 74.5 68.8 4.4 9.5 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 16.8 20.1 20.7 150.5 77.6 72.3 3.4 7.2 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 17.0 19.1 22.7 137.3 75.0 70.0 3.9 8.1 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 14.9 19.1 17.5 142.7 76.1 68.8 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 15.1 18.6 16.6 146.8 76.8 70.2 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 12.1 14.7 16.5 145.7 76.6 70.0 2.5 5.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 20.7 24.5 23.1 142.9 76.2 71.3 3.3 8.1 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 5.7 9.4 14.3 116.0 70.5 62.5 1.9 4.4 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 12.6 15.3 16.3 138.6 75.1 68.5 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 17.5 19.2 12.8 125.3 72.6 65.4 4.2 8.7 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 24.6 27.9 25.0 144.7 76.5 72.0 4.9 10.6 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 18.2 18.5 14.0 122.0 71.7 65.9 3.6 8.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 16.9 18.3 23.5 136.7 74.4 69.5 5.7 9.6 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 16.1 19.8 20.3 154.5 78.3 72.8 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 13.8 14.9 13.4 127.4 73.1 66.2 3.4 6.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 16.2 17.2 15.8 122.5 72.1 67.0 2.7 6.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 18.2 21.3 21.7 144.2 76.4 71.1 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 16.3 20.5 21.4 153.5 78.1 72.0 2.7 6.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 7.2 9.5 9.0 100.0 65.2 57.9 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 19.0 22.9 20.3 149.2 77.3 71.0 2.8 7.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 11.9 14.3 18.8 137.9 75.1 68.2 3.0 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 27.3 30.9 23.7 140.5 75.4 70.6 6.3 12.7 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 13.2 14.1 14.0 121.0 71.6 65.3 3.3 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------