***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.7 16.0 11.6 116.4 70.1 47.3 4.4 8.4 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.6 14.1 11.8 121.3 71.5 52.7 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.5 16.1 12.8 123.6 72.0 54.9 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.7 18.9 9.3 101.1 64.9 44.2 5.7 11.4 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.1 14.4 10.4 127.1 72.5 51.9 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.8 16.5 10.1 100.5 64.4 48.4 5.0 10.0 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.3 12.4 11.9 126.3 72.6 51.2 3.1 6.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.6 18.8 8.7 99.0 63.9 46.5 6.4 11.9 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 4.8 17.0 11.0 114.4 69.2 48.9 4.8 9.3 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.8 19.8 10.9 115.1 69.7 51.6 5.2 10.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.1 17.2 9.6 113.6 69.1 52.6 5.7 10.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.7 12.6 7.0 96.0 63.2 45.2 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.9 13.5 7.2 99.7 65.1 48.5 3.0 7.3 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.7 14.3 13.1 99.8 65.5 49.9 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.3 16.9 8.9 108.9 68.5 46.1 4.4 9.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.5 13.0 7.9 103.0 66.3 48.8 4.2 7.9 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.9 19.5 12.5 139.8 75.6 53.6 3.4 7.5 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 13.9 11.3 96.0 63.8 48.8 5.0 9.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.5 16.3 11.5 112.2 69.3 52.1 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.7 10.3 91.4 61.4 49.6 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.0 15.8 10.7 109.3 67.8 47.8 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.5 17.6 12.7 133.6 74.1 52.8 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.7 12.4 11.2 101.7 66.7 51.1 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.2 19.4 12.3 102.9 66.1 50.2 5.3 11.1 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.2 15.4 12.7 122.7 71.7 49.9 3.8 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.6 13.9 7.6 100.5 63.9 48.9 4.7 8.9 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.0 15.3 12.9 118.8 70.8 49.4 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.0 14.0 8.3 101.6 66.1 44.2 3.6 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.1 19.2 12.4 94.9 62.7 50.7 7.9 13.6 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.7 9.7 11.9 117.8 70.8 52.2 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------