***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.6 10.5 7.6 99.5 66.5 43.8 2.1 5.2 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.5 13.1 9.0 127.8 73.2 47.8 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.7 11.1 8.6 106.6 68.5 44.5 2.5 5.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 1.8 6.8 5.8 85.0 62.1 35.7 1.8 4.2 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 1.5 5.7 6.1 100.4 66.2 41.7 1.4 3.0 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 1.8 8.8 9.3 114.4 69.8 38.2 1.8 4.2 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.3 10.8 9.1 125.3 72.7 47.3 1.9 4.4 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 3.8 11.8 6.5 86.6 62.0 38.3 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.1 7.4 6.9 99.5 65.9 41.7 2.0 4.3 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.1 11.1 7.5 94.4 64.6 42.5 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 1.8 5.9 5.2 98.1 65.3 38.4 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 1.7 5.3 4.9 84.2 61.0 34.2 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 1.5 5.5 6.3 97.7 66.0 36.5 1.4 3.0 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.8 15.3 11.4 116.5 70.7 47.9 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.9 9.2 6.3 118.7 71.0 38.3 1.7 3.9 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 1.1 4.3 5.4 89.6 63.3 34.7 1.1 2.5 4.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.8 7.4 8.6 119.8 71.4 48.2 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 2.8 8.8 10.0 99.3 65.9 45.7 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.7 11.9 9.1 125.7 72.7 47.6 2.7 5.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 3.0 10.5 9.3 95.2 64.2 43.7 3.0 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.7 10.4 7.0 96.1 65.3 41.7 2.6 5.7 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.0 8.3 9.4 125.3 72.8 49.9 2.0 3.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.6 10.2 9.1 119.8 71.5 46.8 2.8 5.1 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.0 13.3 10.1 107.0 68.4 46.9 3.9 7.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.4 8.0 7.0 89.7 64.4 42.2 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 1.6 7.2 6.5 119.2 70.9 35.9 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.2 12.2 8.0 97.0 66.3 44.4 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.6 6.2 5.7 93.4 64.3 35.2 1.5 3.5 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 11.1 11.1 103.5 66.7 47.4 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.0 14.3 9.0 122.3 72.0 46.2 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------